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Is AI the future?
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
Bulk is probably why Smartphones have taken off whilst robots etc lag behind.

150 grams of hi tech is far cheaper than say 50 kg of robot.

Can the world support the creation of zillions of robots?


50kg of robot must be way cheaper than 1500kg of car and we seem to be able to make more than we need of them. Indoor robots could also last longer than cars, operating in a far less hostile environment.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we have plenty of raw materials to build them. As you say 1500 to 50 on a weight basis. But can we install enough renewable power to power all the desired robots at the same time we try to phase out fossil fuel electric plants? The crunch might come in five to seven years when they become a demanded consumer item at the same time crude oil supplies finally are declining.
I'm betting the poor and lower middle class will be doing without at the same time the robots take the jobs they used to subsist on.
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Vortex2



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep. The rich will have the toys - cleaner than dirty unpredictable human beings.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
I doubt that our independent solar panel system would power a robot when we can't get diesel for the genny.


That is a point I had not yet considered.
Just how much energy will a robot maid or nurse require?
How does that compare to their now unemployed human counterpart? Might that be the Achilles heel of AI robotics?
Of course if you can afford the robots you can probably afford the solar panels and battery walls to charge them.


A domestic robot, with capabilities broadly similar to a human servant, need not consume a great deal of energy.
A human uses about 200 watts when performing light or sedentary work, and up to about 1,000 watts when working hard.

A robot should be able to use electricity more efficiently than a human uses food.
Providing say 5 kwh a day to "feed" a robot is probably cheaper and simpler than providing food for a servant.
A robot can work almost 24 hours a day with only brief breaks for recharging.
To provide 24/7 cover with human staff would probably need at least 5 employees in total, to a allow for sleep, rest, sickness holidays, and the like.

A domestic robot to care for the elderly, or for other domestic type work would probably be at least somewhat humanoid in design since it would be in an environment largely designed for humans.
We are still some way away from a robot able to care alone for the elderly.
As just one example, the robot would have to handle the person very carefully and gently in a bath or shower, but would also have to know that rougher treatment is permitted in an emergency, for example rescue from fire.
The market initialy is likely to be for old folks homes, in which a total human payroll of 100 (15 on duty at one time) might be replaced by 8 humans, only one on duty, and 10 robots of which 9 would be available at any time.
The human would be relieved of physically demanding work and could work a longer shift.
They would be to manage the robots and tell them what to do in any unfamiliar or emergency situations such as fire, flood, intruder etc.


Except in an emergency, a humanoid robot would not be ideal for gardening or agriculture, the machine for such work would probably be more like a tractor, but automatic.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:


Except in an emergency, a humanoid robot would not be ideal for gardening or agriculture, the machine for such work would probably be more like a tractor, but automatic.

Yes each robot will be designed for the job and a human shape only fits in a few cases. I envision some agriculture robots having a long thin shape with solar panels on top the width of the row spacing, (perhaps spanning a row with a gap between the panels). As the bot moves down the row it can plant,weed, hoe, harvest, and remove harmful insects mechanically or apply chemicals precisely where needed. Turn around at the end of the row and it unloads weeds picked up etc. and refills seed and fertilizer hoppers then heads back down the next row in turn.
A bit different vision then Luke Skywalkers ag units on Tatooine but I have had forty years to ponder the design. Smile
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Automated crop planters and pickers and sprayers and hoes are very much a reality already, and have more than enough sensors and computational power to qualify as robots within the limits of their designed tasks. The tractor unit pulling the implement can already navigate a field more accurately than a human and will increasingly decide what a crop needs and when, and collect and connect the specialist attachment from the depot as required.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An electric assist bicycle is already more efficient than a human, in that the energy it uses to propel me at 15mph is less, and has a lower carbon footprint, than the energy in the additional food I need to eat to achieve the same rate of progress without losing weight.

Of course, most people need to lose weight...
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm aware of all of that. My only real innovation in the concept above is having the robot solar powered and do weeding mechanically using AI to sort weed from crop, pulling one and hoeing up the other. Work currently being done by the use of herbicide. Things like potato beetles and their egg clusters might also be mechanically removed if the AI is smart enough. That the machine could work faster the hotter the sun is makes it match the growth rate of the weeds. It might be able to check each row daily to bi weekly keeping ahead of weed and insect infestations at all points of the growing season.
They also might employ"dog" robots to keep deer and other crop thieves out of the fields at night etc. That alone might increase yields ten percent which would more then pay for the robo-dog.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are already "robots" which can sort different types of plastic and remove them from a conveyor and quality control food items by colour so it is only a matter of time before they can be fitted to crop picking machines in the field. After all if a robot can put a cup on a cow's teat to milk it they should be able to grab a fruit of a certain colour from a plant.

If we have got to the stage where we are running out of fossil fuel or the supply is disrupted we might also be at the stage of near collapse of the economic system. Robots wouldn't last long then as the complex parts for maintenance wouldn't be available.

There would be fewer jobs but also fewer people to do them. We would nearly all be back to growing our own food with saved seed, humanure fertilizers and natural pesticides.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
There are already "robots" which can sort different types of plastic and remove them from a conveyor and quality control food items by colour so it is only a matter of time before they can be fitted to crop picking machines in the field. After all if a robot can put a cup on a cow's teat to milk it they should be able to grab a fruit of a certain colour from a plant.

If we have got to the stage where we are running out of fossil fuel or the supply is disrupted we might also be at the stage of near collapse of the economic system. Robots wouldn't last long then as the complex parts for maintenance wouldn't be available.

There would be fewer jobs but also fewer people to do them. We would nearly all be back to growing our own food with saved seed, humanure fertilizers and natural pesticides.

Nah the robots and their spare parts would be made in a fully automated factory running shifts when renewable power was available sitting idol but ready when it was not. Much more flexible then humans that need regular rest periods at home. If a robot can do surgery they can certainly fix another robot. ("do not disassemble"). Smile
The question is how to get the robots to pay the taxes supporting all the unemployed people eating the robot farmed food.
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Vortex2



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
fully automated factory running shifts when renewable power was available sitting idol but ready when it was not.

That's exactly how I see the future turning out.

Farmers, factory workers etc will get radio notificcations to go into work if sun and/or wind power is expected otherwise they will stay at home.
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