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Is AI the future?
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:03 pm    Post subject: Is AI the future? Reply with quote

This article says that AI is the future but it makes many mistakes along the way.

It assumes, like most economists do, that the future will be a linear progression from today. Lord Stern says that the future will be interupted by ubrupt and catastrophic changes caused by climate change. The changes could bring the whole of our very fragile economy down in one massive cascade.

While he correctly says that "AI will break capitalism and this should be obvious to anyone. Capitalism only works where there exists a reasonable level of equality. That’s because Capitalism requires both capital and labor. When you don’t have labor (as it is replaced by AI), then there will be nobody to consume the goods that are produced." He follows that with "Capitalism also requires scarcity, otherwise the cost of goods goes to zero." which is untrue as production only goes ahead when costs are less than the price. As price of a good drops the highest cost producers generally drop out and price stabilises somewhere just above the cost of production.

He also makes the mistake of thinking that money and cryptocurrencies have an intrinsic value when they are no more than an electronic byte on a computer which is liable to complete loss in the case of a power failure.

He seems to have no concept of the fact that there are only three things of intrinsic value to us and they are shelter, food and water, not necessarily in that order.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regarding AI. It is going to get a whole lot more ubiquitous, and so make our lives a lot worse, before it get's better (as a result of the end stages of industrial civilisational collapse).

Timescale?

Buggered if I know. But, I think we have some decades of this to run.

Unless, of, course someone decides to let off some fireworks. In which case all bets are off
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only way AI is compatible with any kind of equality is with the introduction of some form of universal income. In fact, outside a collapse scenario, some from of universal income is more or less inevitable.

It's not really in anyone's benefit for a vanishingly small number of people/corporations to accrue all the wealth, leaving the rest of us broke and the economy without any customers/demand. If we don't address technological unemployment with some form of UBI we all lose.

I read Max Tegmark's Life 3.0 Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence last year. Made a compelling case for the inevitability of UBI.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
.....It's not really in anyone's benefit for a vanishingly small number of people/corporations to accrue all the wealth, ....


The understatement of the year, Chris. It's the death of the economic system which I suppose would benefit the world's wildlife and any human hunter gatherers left.
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

About a year ago I got fed up with all the AI hype so I decided to build my own AI machine to check out the situation.

After a lot of research I bought a fast PC, with Nvidia GPU card as main AI processor, and installed Linux as it is the de facto AI OS.

Using Open Source libraries etc it took me three months of spare bits of time to get a working image recognition system running.

To be frank, the results scared me : a £600 machne and a few weeks work produced a real-time system which could monitor a video feed and classify up to 20 objects in the image. "person", "book", "phone" etc.

Within hours I could imagine my baby system being used for all sorts of applcations with just minor changes ... and these applications could range from medical, security ... to nefarious.

I have hardly turned the machine on since then ... too scary!

Now imagine how all the billions of dollars that Am.zon, Google and the like are spending on AI will affect us ... mostly unknowingly.

Life is going to change drastically and fast ... must faster than the pace of Peak Oil or even Brexit.
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eatyourveg



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually I could use it right now ho ho. Broke a rib and not in a position to cut next years firewood, it could do that for me right................?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't laugh for a few weeks, EYV, and, from personal experience, you'll be OK to chop your logs over the spring. They'll be OK for next year as long as they get a summers worth of drying.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

About 5 years ago a list was published of 700+ jobs soon to be abolished through the use of AI, listed in order of likelihood.

Librarians were high, if not top, of the list - but our libraries, despite huge efforts, are a long way from losing human staff. Automation is proving too unreliable.

Bottom was something like ‘recreational liaison professionals’ or some such, meaning sex workers. But sex robots are getting scarily near taking over. I suppose it’s where the money is.
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Vortex2



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, an example of what AI can do Real Soon Now.

I am an audiologist (retrained after a career in technology. Last role was Senior Smartphone Technologist for a mobile manufacturer which became part of Giggle)

My role is give a "very safe - won't be automated" score by some websites ... presumably due to the perceived need for practitioner-patient contact.

However I can EASILY imagine a fully automated audiology practice. In fact one firm has started work on a machine to do excatly that.

Maybe 80% of audiologists could be 'retired' leaving their work to the machines. The remaining 20% would handle special cases and other exceptions kicked upstairs by the machines.

This switch could happen within a year or so should an investor chuck money at practice automation.

The key point is that few people are safe. I thnk that the 80-20 retire/keep split will apply to many sectors. The 20% good and flexible staff will stay on as overseers of the machines whilst the 80% will be on the street.

You have been warned.
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stumuz1



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The biggest growing and biggest overall employment sector over the next 25 years is elder care.

Would you trust a robot to put your Nana to bed?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
The biggest growing and biggest overall employment sector over the next 25 years is elder care.

Would you trust a robot to put your Nana to bed?


Not just yet, but in a few years time yes I probably would.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
The biggest growing and biggest overall employment sector over the next 25 years is elder care.

Would you trust a robot to put your Nana to bed?


In 25 years time the biggest growing and biggest overall employment sector might well be growing your own food and medicines as the industrial age might have collapsed by then.

My Nana died years ago and my Mum hasn't long to go. The question is whether my children would trust a robot to put me to bed! I doubt that our independent solar panel system would power a robot when we can't get diesel for the genny and, in the absence of antibiotics that still work, I might have succumbed to some minor infection like we used to 75 years ago by then.
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Vortex2



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even after a major collapse a few towns / countries will still exist for the top 1% and their acolytes.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
I doubt that our independent solar panel system would power a robot when we can't get diesel for the genny.


That is a point I had not yet considered.
Just how much energy will a robot maid or nurse require?
How does that compare to their now unemployed human counterpart? Might that be the Achilles heel of AI robotics?
Of course if you can afford the robots you can probably afford the solar panels and battery walls to charge them.
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Vortex2



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bulk is probably why Smartphones have taken off whilst robots etc lag behind.

150 grams of hi tech is far cheaper than say 50 kg of robot.

Can the world support the creation of zillions of robots?
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