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2018 predictions and forecasts.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Well not counting suicides there were 15,549 gun deaths in America last year


Seems to be going up but still not good enough. You must try harder!
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5240
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Well not counting suicides there were 15,549 gun deaths in America last year


Seems to be going up but still not good enough. You must try harder!
I don't know anybody that needs shooting enough to be worth the jail time.
If you consider the total population of the US you have about a one in 21,000 chance of being shot in any given year and a one in 350 chance in lifetime. But of course those poor people living in inner cities have much worse chance then the average.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Current world ‘debt’ stands at $184 trillion.

Not long to go now.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
Current world ‘debt’ stands at $184 trillion.

Not long to go now.


That needs to grow by about 3% per year for a healthy economy so by 2042 that will be $368 billion and by 2066 that will be $736 billion and $1472 billion by 2090. What can possibly go wrong?
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Current world ‘debt’ stands at $184 trillion.

Not long to go now.


That needs to grow by about 3% per year for a healthy economy so by 2042 that will be $368 billion and by 2066 that will be $736 billion and $1472 billion by 2090. What can possibly go wrong?

That world debt figure is a bit misleading. Not all debt is bad as much is backed up by the value of what was purchased or built with the borrowed money. It is the remainder debt that has been borrowed and squandered on useless expenditures like vacations or gambling that needs to be worried about.
So $368 trillion in 2042 might be quite manageable if $350 trillion was collateralized by solid assets.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:

So $368 trillion in 2042 might be quite manageable if $350 trillion was collateralized by solid assets.


I agree but that's a very big "if".

More and more consumer debt is used to just get by every day and keep the economy going as the Kleptocracy take a bigger share of the pot.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:

So $368 trillion in 2042 might be quite manageable if $350 trillion was collateralized by solid assets.


I agree but that's a very big "if".

More and more consumer debt is used to just get by every day and keep the economy going as the Kleptocracy take a bigger share of the pot.

Well there is a certain amount of personal responsibility that today seems to be lacking in many people. Also people don't seem to understand how to get by while in the financial doldrums. A person posting on face book from their smartphone about not being able to afford pizza for dinner is pretty stupid in my opinion.
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The pizza bit I can understand. The phone, however... plenty of 'jobs' now being offered to the younger generation involve having to keep up with a 'flexible' schedule delivered via an app. on their phone.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
The pizza bit I can understand. The phone, however... plenty of 'jobs' now being offered to the younger generation involve having to keep up with a 'flexible' schedule delivered via an app. on their phone.

If it is job required it is justified as long as the job brings in more then the cost of the phone. I have one for work for that reason even though I have no service at my house.
Point being that food on the table trumps gadgets, and cooking at home is cheaper then take out and should be more nutritious if you pay attention.
If the cash flow won't support the space you are in you either need to take in a room mate /boarder or move to cheaper space. Phones, cable TV, fashionable clothing etc. all fade away or should if the money is not there.
I know more then a few truly poor people and their house (rented trailer) always has fuel in the tank and food in the freezer and fridge. They maybe "bills paid broke" some days on the end of the month but those bills are paid and they don't take on things they can't pay for.
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