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2018 predictions and forecasts.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
.... You appear to make the mistake of thinking the amount of wealth in the world is a fixed figure when it is in fact growing rapidly. .......


"Inflating" would be a more apt word than "growing", especially when wealth is defined through money owned rather than capital goods.

If the amount of wealth in the world is defined by the amount of resources consumed then there is a finite limit as there is a finite limit to those resources, after all we only have one world. The amount of growth in the use of resources is being constrained at the moment by the amount of energy that we can use to manipulate those resources, whether newly mined or recycled, without overheating the world.

The amount of newly mined resources is also being constrained by the EROEI of those resources, especially oil. It has been estimated (Hall & Klittegard: Energy and the Wealth of Nations) that the EROEI of oil cannot drop below 5 for there to be an actual surplus of energy for us to use in non productive ways, such as government, art and medical provision. So our whole civilisation and the amount of civilisation, if you can define government, art and medical provision by an amount, depends on how far above 5 the current EROEI of our fuels stands.
No the worlds wealth is growing in absolute terms. While they arn't making any more land the value of the farmland increases with the population that has to be fed. And we continue to build ever more valuable buildings on the land from factories to hospitals and the infrastructure to support them and the transportation between them and the farms and mines. Also there is the value of intellectual property , the patents for everything from life saving drugs to smart phones and there is no limit on how much of that we can invent or create. Of course the number of autos, trains, plains etc. continue to rise faster then the old wear out and the utility we get from them is wealth. When resources get tight , energy included the ideas and inventions that let us use less to accomplish our goals will also become part of our wealth.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What you are talking about there is the relationship between supply and demand. That is not the same as wealth. At best, it provides an indirect index of wealth disparities in a finite economic system. But that's about it. The fact your conception of economics is so tied up with this ideologically driven false measure of wealth is telling of the level of indoctrination to which you have been inculcated.

Wealth is ultimately measured in term of how much stuff one has or one has access to and actually, in diametric opposition to your own understanding, more often than not the lower the exchange value of something, the more likely that more people are to be wealthy in terms of ownership or access to that something.

Wealth, as defined above, can also be broken down into two components - that which is necessary and that which is desirable. Necessary things include the obvious stuff like food and water. Desirable things might include a television, holidays etc. Clearly, then, the most important of these are the necessary things.

So, in terms of land:

* The population of the world has risen

* Land has been progressively degraded due to overarming

* Consequently, current production levels are now partially or wholly dependent on inputs from external sources of energy in the form of hydrocarbons.

The increasing costs of farming and the increased exchange value of land, all point to a long term trend of supply getting ever closer to the point of not meeting demand. If that were not the case, the exchange value would not be rising.

All of which means, in wealth terms, the vast majority of people are becoming less wealthy as their money begins to not keep up with the rising cost of land and it's associated products. Sure enough, for an ever decreasing minority of people, within the existing wealth pool, they are likely to garner an ever greater share of it as a consequence of owning or having preferential access to commodities such as land.

But, that doesn't mean people as a whole, are getting wealthier. It doesn't even mean the system as a whole is getting wealthier either. It just means that an existing pool of finite material resources are likely to become ever more inequitably distributed over time.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think John you are just being contrary for the sake of being contrary and prolonging the discussion/ argument. Smile
Perhaps your view comes from being in the UK where until recently land ownership was reserved to an upper class.
While I in the US in spite of making very close to the median income all my working life ,if not a good bit less, have managed to have my home and land along with vehicles paid for in full.
Also many of my neighbors and co workers are similarly well off or could have been if they had forgone the rec. vehicles, motor boats, expensive vacations or drug use etc.
The price of land is not an issue to those that have moved into urban areas, what matters to them is the price of food in the super markets and those are so cheap that people forgo buying staple commodities like flour and rice and buy more expensive prepacked microwaveable meals or even worse eat out several times a week.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vt, you said you think the world’s wealth is growing in absolute terms. Depends on what you define as wealth. The world industries are creating more stuff, but they are creating more problems of pollution. In the US there is one of the biggest money generating industries in the world, the pharmaceutical manufacturers. However they are also one of the biggest killers, is this wealth generation? The US has the sickest population in the industrial world, mostly caused by injecting aluminium, squalene, monosodium glutamate, glyphosate, polysorbate 80 (and 20) on numerous occasions, NONE OF WHICH HAS EVER BEEN SUBJECTED TO A CONTROLLED SAFETY STUDY!!!!!!! in the combinations administerd.
Reference for aluminium

There are many other industrialised countries doing the same naieve mandatory poisoning of their populations under the flawed belief it will stop people getting disease. Unfortunately it can be seen in the US with the increase in autism and the forcast that within the next few years 1 in 2 children will be damaged by the vaccines, where is this absolute growth in wealth leading?
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having wealth and using it wisely has always been two separate things. William the conqueror eating himself to death being the first example that comes to mind.
That the USA misuses pharmaceuticals and pesticides is a misuse of our wealth but it does not mean the wealth is not there.
The declining life expectancy in the USA can also be attributed to the number of immigrants coming into the country each year which gives us a very different demographic mix along with the higher levels of drug abuse which relatively wealthy Americans choose to pay for and consume.
Trump is trying to shut off the flow of fentanyl at it's source (China) this week at the G20 meeting. If he could actually do that one thing and make it endure his presidency maybe well remembered in years to come.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The value of land/property isn't increasing as fast as its cost because land and property are seen as a safe haven for all the inflated money that the central banks have pumped into the system since 2008. Value/wealth doesn't always correlate with cost. The same can be said for stocks and shares which have inflated in price for the same reason; more money chasing the same amount of goods.

If all that money spent by the central banks had been invested in capital projects such as wind farms, solar electricity, building insulation and electrification of transport we would have had much lower prices for stocks and shares and land/property but the world's wealth would have increased much more than it actually has and employment would have increased too.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
...
Trump is trying to shut off the flow of fentanyl at it's source (China) this week at the G20 meeting. If he could actually do that one thing and make it endure his presidency maybe well remembered in years to come.


I think that any good he manages to do will be forgotten in the overwhelming nastiness of the rest of his actions.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
...
Trump is trying to shut off the flow of fentanyl at it's source (China) this week at the G20 meeting. If he could actually do that one thing and make it endure his presidency maybe well remembered in years to come.


I think that any good he manages to do will be forgotten in the overwhelming nastiness of the rest of his actions.


So he shuts down the import of Fentanyl. what will he do about Tylenol or any other non-steriodal anti-inflammatory, or statins, or any of the drugs used to “treat” the effects caused by the previous drug? Or any of the “anti-cancer” drugs, many of which are known to cause cancer, and ALL of which are extremely toxic.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:


So he shuts down the import of Fentanyl. what will he do about Tylenol or any other non-steriodal anti-inflammatory, or statins, or any of the drugs used to “treat” the effects caused by the previous drug? Or any of the “anti-cancer” drugs, many of which are known to cause cancer, and ALL of which are extremely toxic.
Sorry Woodburner I don't know what conspiracy theory bandwagon you are riding and beating the drum for? Tylenol? What does Trump have to do with it or any other drug put out by the drug companies?
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Then why pick on Fentanyl apart from the importing? To stop it’s import will have a tiny effect on people, so they might not be able to get opiates, so what, they are able to get all the other damaging drugs, so it indicates nothing in the way of concern about the people he claims to act for. trump does have a huge amount to do with the pharmaceutical, as the political parties are funded by, and the media are controlled by big pharma. Your throwing labels at me just indicate a lack of understanding about what is happening in your own country.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
Then why pick on Fentanyl apart from the importing? To stop it’s import will have a tiny effect on people,....

28,000 deaths in a year in just the USA is a "tiny effect"? Pull your head out of your Ass.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Only 28,000? Who’s bothered? This is from 2013 but it seems the figure gets worse every time it’s looked at,

Better revise your view on Tylenol then.
Quote:
According to the National Institutes for Health, around 78,000 Americans enter an emergency room every year due to acetaminophen poisoning. This results in 33,000 hospitalizations. In fact, acetaminophen, not alcohol, is the nation’s #1 cause of acute liver failure.




More

(And please do something about your offensive remarks, they don’t strengethen your case, trump doesn’t understand that either.)
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
woodburner wrote:
Then why pick on Fentanyl apart from the importing? To stop it’s import will have a tiny effect on people,....

28,000 deaths in a year in just the USA is a "tiny effect"? Pull your head out of your Ass.


And how many people are killed by guns roaming the US and tricking people and the police into pulling the triggers?
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
woodburner wrote:
Then why pick on Fentanyl apart from the importing? To stop it’s import will have a tiny effect on people,....

28,000 deaths in a year in just the USA is a "tiny effect"? Pull your head out of your Ass.


And how many people are killed by guns roaming the US and tricking people and the police into pulling the triggers?

Well not counting suicides there were 15,549 gun deaths in America last year but few of those were shooters being tricked into pulling the trigger. In the vast majority of cases the shooters know just what they are doing and in most cases the identity of the person they are shooting.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back to the Tylenol for a moment. Tylenol overdoses are a problem especially among alcoholics but the labels clearly warn against combining the two or over dosing . But as to the number of deaths (not hospitalizations) it is a lot less then Fentanyl.
Quote:
"Each year a substantial number of Americans experience intentional and unintentional Tylenol (acetaminophen) associated overdoses that can result in serious morbidity and mortality. Analysis of national databases show that acetaminophen-associated overdoses account for about 50,000 emergency room visits and 25,000 hospitalizations yearly. Acetaminophen is the nation's leading cause of acute liver failure, according to data from an ongoing study funded by the National Institutes for Health. Analysis of national mortality files shows about 450 deaths occur each year from acetaminophen-associated overdoses; 100 of these are unintentional."

Now if 100 were unintentional then the other 350 were suicides and you are never going to stop those just perhaps the method.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2017/09/11/tylenol-far-most-dangerous-drug-ever-made-11711
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