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Fire watch
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suspect the California fires were historically large, but before the days of firefighting equipment they burnt out and so consumed the available fuel. Today everybody tries to stop the fires burning. They might be successful in the short term, but longterm the fuel supply will get to the stage when control is impossible. Maybe that’s today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next year.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
I suspect the California fires were historically large, but before the days of firefighting equipment they burnt out and so consumed the available fuel. Today everybody tries to stop the fires burning. They might be successful in the short term, but longterm the fuel supply will get to the stage when control is impossible. Maybe that’s today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next year.


It may be significant that these fires are occurring further and further north into areas with a more maritime climate.

http://google.org/crisismap/google.com/2018-carr-fire
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will never complain about the rain again.

'The largest inferno, sparked Thursday morning in Northern California, prompted numerous evacuations, including several entire towns.

By late Thursday, it became apparent that Paradise, a town of 27,000 people north of Sacremento, had been devastated by the fire.

"Pretty much the community of Paradise is destroyed, it's that kind of devastation," said Cal Fire Capt. Scott McLean late Thursday. "The wind that was predicted came and just wiped it out.""


https://weather.com/news/news/2018-11-09-california-wildfire-camp-fire-impacts/?fbclid=IwAR36gtySPGlcBAn9aZljuyp-rtK9xpfd9Hf90YpCKMZwC_LLCNkaiCpBcqM
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
.....
It may be significant that these fires are occurring further and further north into areas with a more maritime climate. ...


Most climate scientists, following the recent IPCC report, would now say that the fact that fires are moving north is a significant pointer to the advance of anthropomorphic climate change/global warming.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree. Any individual fire can be blamed on bad luck, wrath of god, want of fire safety measures, or unwise human development.

There is however a general trend to more large fires in more northern areas without any history of such fires. That points very strongly to climate change as being the cause.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't agree. The land is managed in rural areas either for the benefit of the landowners, or in a national park, maybe at public expense. Just like dams collapsing, I suspect neglect, incompetence, corruption greed etc. There are also fires set by idiots, hooligans and terrorists. The Pacific is known to have long changing wind patterns etc. in decade cycles, which obviously alters things.

I have no evidence for or against climate change, man made climate change or the effects thereof.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Agree. Any individual fire can be blamed on bad luck, wrath of god, want of fire safety measures, or unwise human development.

There is however a general trend to more large fires in more northern areas without any history of such fires. That points very strongly to climate change as being the cause.
A note of caution on that. There is about sixty years of public policy (Fire suppression, Smoky the Bear campaigns etc.) plus zoning and building code policies that have all reached maturity along with the trees and brush around them. Is it climate change? It certainly could be. But it might also be the end result of a few bad decisions made back in the 1960's.
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Paradise-CA/pmf,pf_pt/40242_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/39.853356,-121.504326,39.629225,-121.826706_rect/11_zm/

Most of these houses seem to be surrounded by trees. However many pix of the disaster show totally burnt out timber houses surrounded by trees that seem to have survived the conflagration rather better,
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Paradise-CA/pmf,pf_pt/40242_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/39.853356,-121.504326,39.629225,-121.826706_rect/11_zm/

Most of these houses seem to be surrounded by trees. However many pix of the disaster show totally burnt out timber houses surrounded by trees that seem to have survived the conflagration rather better,
Yes There is that. I expect that building codes will get updated so that easily ignited materials will be forbidden for exterior walls and roofs before the rebuild begins.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From today's news:
Quote:
Deputies found eight more bodies Friday, bringing the death toll to 71.

The number of people unaccounted for grew from 631 on Thursday night to more than 1,000 on Friday, but Sheriff Kory Honea said the list was dynamic and could easily contain duplicate names and unreliable spellings of names.

He said the roster probably includes some who fled the blaze and do not realize they’ve been reported missing.


From that and the rate they are finding human remains it appears that four to five hundred dead is likely. This is a National tragedy that will be examined and annualized for years and positive lines of action maybe few and far between.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A national tragedy with 500 deaths? What would be the descriptive term for the 12,500 or so who died as a result of shootings?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
A national tragedy with 500 deaths? What would be the descriptive term for the 12,500 or so who died as a result of shootings?


If dozens or hundreds perish in a single incident, this is far more noteworthy than similar numbers killed one by one.

300 killed in airplane crash=terrible tragedy, big news reports.
300 killed in car crashes= no one but those directly affected much cares.

I doubt BTW that the death toll in the fires will reach 500. Reports speak of as many as 1,000 being missing, but most are probably safe and out of touch.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:

I doubt BTW that the death toll in the fires will reach 500. Reports speak of as many as 1,000 being missing, but most are probably safe and out of touch.

One would hope that is the case but the number listed as missing keeps going up not down which would happen if most were alive and contacting relatives as soon as the means became available to them. The silence is ominous.Even though these fires are not contained and new evacuations are happening daily no one is now taken by surprise so we are talking about the people that got taken by surprise four days ago.
Just have to wait and see.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
If dozens or hundreds perish in a single incident, this is far more noteworthy than similar numbers killed one by one.

300 killed in airplane crash=terrible tragedy, big news reports.
300 killed in car crashes= no one but those directly affected much cares


I think this is merely the result of the way that the broadly uncaring MSM and politicians treat it. Neither cares much except for the credit or glory they might be able to claim for fixing something, or even not fixing it. trump is going to see the scene, he is well known for his caring nature- NOT!!!
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Last edited by woodburner on Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From Newsweek:

Quote:
President Donald Trump spoke about the fires during an interview Friday with Fox News’ Chris Wallace a day before he was expected to travel to the state to see the damage himself. Trump summarized in the interview, which airs Sunday on Fox, his thoughts about the fire by saying that if the land had been managed better “you wouldn’t have the fires.”

The president said he had seen the firemen at work and saw them raking under trees near the flames of the fires. Trump said that had the areas around the trees been raked out earlier, there would have been no fire burning.


So there it is, the real cause of all the problems is lack of rakes.
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