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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9874
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If TM survives this it will be something special. She already a zombie. The ERG are putting in letters, which will surely force a no-confidence vote by the tory party, and the resignations aren't finished. Big rumours flying around that Mordaunt and Gove are both going.

She's got no talent left to run the government, no hope of the getting the deal through parliament, an not one ounce of authority left, anywhere. How can she continue?
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boisdevie



Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 299
Location: N Lancashire

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Should I be stocking up on corned beef and razor wire yet?
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jacob Rees Mogg "prepares a letter of no confidence in the leadership of the PM" According to various media reports.

And the junior Brexit minister has resigned, in addition to the two earlier resignations.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:
Should I be stocking up on corned beef and razor wire yet?


You mean that you don't ALREADY hold stocks ! Smile
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JRM has submitted a letter of no confidence to the 1922 committee.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jacob-rees-mogg-has-submitted-letter-to-topple-theresa-may-after-chilling-threat-over-brexit/ar-BBPJP3C?ocid=spartanntp_edu
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/15/soft-brexit-agreement-not-a-done-deal-warn-eu-leaders

Looks like the French and other allies want a surrender on fisheries as well within the draft deal.

Will this finally push this toxic deal over the edge?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fisheries will push it over the edge, for sure. Too many leave-voting coastal constituencies where getting EU trawlers out of British waters (or at the very least, under total UK control) is a critical issue. It would certainly cost Amber Rudd her seat in Hastings if she supported a deal which allowed indefinite continuation of EU taking our fish. I suspect she is aware of that too.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, the Tory high command has taken us to where it always intended to take us; BRINO (Brexit in name only). Meanwhile, the corporate and political class (which are the same thing) owned press is whipping up the notion that either we take this pile of shit "deal" or face the "catastrophe" of "crashing out" of the EU. Or, perhaps we should just have another vote where we could always... you know... just change our minds.

Simultaneously, Labour's position is as big a pile of bullshit as the Tories in terms of trying to make out they could do a better deal. The reason the Tories have got such a bad deal is because (a) the remain-leaning establishment in the Tories never wanted to leave in the first place and (b) the EU were never going to offer a reasonable deal. If they did, and if the UK managed to extricate itself from the EU's grasp, that would mark the end of the EU as many other countries would then head for the exit. So, the UK are being made an example of with a shit deal.

However, whatever one may think of the Tories, Labour would have been in more or less the same position at this point. Furthermore, Corbyn, whatever his previous positions on the EU, has now been nobbled and is fully on board with the bullshit "people's vote" second referendum bandwagon. This country should have walked away on WTO rules at the start. But, since the political class, on BOTH sides of the house, never wanted to leave in the first place, they have never prepared for that.

The democratic betrayal of this country is now almost complete.

As I have said a number of times, this country is now about to face a major political realignment that will make the likes of Farage's UKIP look tame. And that's if we are lucky. The consequences of this treachery could be a lot worse than that.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's wait and see what happens. The deal is indescribably shit, but not enough politicians are pretending otherwise for it to simply sail through parliament. But if it fails to do so then something big is going to happen anyway: no deal will be a chaotic, very hard brexit. But a second referendum followed by a remain victory would surely lead to the tory party being in opposition for many years, and Corbyn in Downing Street.

The shitshow is far from over.

I am not sure May can continue either. Apparently Gove is still considering resigning, which leaves her in a very exposed position. I think if there is a no confidence vote (in the tory party), she will lose it.

EDIT: according to twatter, Gove is staying at DEFRA but the confidence vote is going to happen today.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is being engineered.

Either

May wins the vote and the deal goes through. In which case, the Tories get rid of her following ratification of the deal and rebrand in time for any future election

Or

May loses the vote and it goes to a referendum where the choice will be:

*Remain

*Take the shit deal

*Leave on WTO

Thus the leave vote will be split and remain will win by default

Or

May loses the vote and a general election is called, Labour win and call for a referendum on the deal (or whatever their shit deal alternative is) with the same options as above and the same outcome
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9874
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BrexitCentral is reporting that the 48 letters are in.

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1063355124003848192
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 920
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So can anyone explain what we are agreeing to preferably, 100 - 500 words.
I am not going to get in a lather over no evidence.
Have we agreed:
To radically reduce EU immigation, stop paying 50 billion a year, leave CAP, leave CFP? Leave the CHR, TTIP and other spiders webs?
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
BrexitCentral is reporting that the 48 letters are in.

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1063355124003848192


I think it's likely (66%) that she'll win it. Tories value power above all else and will do everything to avoid a GE.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7018
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Both those on the left and those on the right who are of good faith and who believe in a democratic nation state should, for the purpose of Brexit, and Brexit alone, put aside their differences and ally their forces together on this issue.

When it is over, we can then fight it out in a sovereign nation state democracy for the future of our country. Until then, we should march together ...Left... Right... Left... Right...

Because, guess what, that is precisely what the globalist Left and Right have done, and they are currently kicking the traditional nation state left and right's arses.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9874
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
BrexitCentral is reporting that the 48 letters are in.

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1063355124003848192


I think it's likely (66%) that she'll win it. Tories value power above all else and will do everything to avoid a GE.


It seems there has been a delay. There is not going to be a VoNC until next week at the earliest. Apparently there is an appeal for wavering tory MPs to go back to their constituency associations to consult, and to mull it over during the weekend. If it is going to happen, it will be early next week.

Personally I think she'll lose it if it does go ahead, because of the DUP threat to withdraw from the confidence and supply arrangement if she is not replaced. In other words, her winning the VoNC could actually lead directly to a GE.
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