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Brexit process
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4703
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf

Here it is!
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/14/eu-countries-press-home-advantage-brexit-talks-demand-even-concessions/

Quote:
““The commission and the British have been in the tunnel for a month,” the diplomat said, using jargon to describe officials’ vow of silence on the progress of the talks at crucial and sensitive moments

“The capitals have not been brought along and I wouldn’t be too sure they will just go along with it as it stands.”

“This is not a done deal,” another diplomat said, “it was always going to have to be squared with the member states as well.”

The first diplomat predicted that countries which fish in British waters, would demand further guarantees over exactly when the access to British waters would be granted.

“On fish, we want the same as we had before, as if there was no Brexit,” a diplomat said.

There was also speculation that some EU27 governments would demand that “dynamic alignment”, where the UK would match EU standards as they changed over time, could be resurrected as an EU demand.


Fisheries could be key. It's an emotive issue for many and if May sells the fishermen down the river she will lose the Scottish Conservatives and enrage many ordinary voters.

It may be the case that the average voter won't get too worked up about the Irish backstop, customs union or free trade deals in the future (all rather abstract and technical) but fisherman is a different matter indeed.

Watch this space!
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8084

PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
I just want a no deal brexit!


??? There's no such thing. If the 'deal' fails, then we spend a few months sorting out the bare-bones deal by end of March, then after we've left negotiation continues, building on the bare-bones. 'No deal' just isn't a thing.

Having spent a few minutes looking at this draft agreement text I've given up. It's completely intractable unless you're a European law junky. Too much cross reference. I'm certain the cabinet members haven't read it, let alone understood the detail. One thing that did jump out though were the many references to years beyond the transition period. This deal describes a long process.

Seems no chance May'll get it through parliament.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 429
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
unless you're a European law junky. .


Chris. Sweetie, Are you saying that you find MEQR'S boring Very Happy

https://global.oup.com/uk/orc/law/eu/homewood_concentrate4e/resources/outlines/ch05/problem/

Or my personal favourite. A banana is not a fruit.

It is an easily transported food group that is particularly favoured by the young and the old!!

https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/general-law/applicationofcompetitionlaw.php

You are in the wrong job Smile
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A bare bones no deal brexit would be better than the current deal on offer.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
A bare bones no deal brexit would be better than the current deal on offer.


And surely nearly the entire tory party knows this. They know that if this deal passes, the tory party is f*cked for a very long time and Corbyn will end up in Downing Street.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Eurointelligence briefing us worth reading in full. They think an early ge is likely should parliament not support the deal.

A Corbyn prime minister could be soon!
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems the least messy approach is following what tony blair said in his interview today. That is, an (un)apologetic May puts this to parliament. The deal gets voted down, making it unacceptable and forgotten about. Followed by a quick new referendum giving the choice Remain or No (barbones?) Deal.


If remain, up to eu to accept. If not then no deal.

With a ge and future pm corbyn, maybe something like this suits all political players better. Or maybe at least less damaging.

But, from above link, eu definately opposes this? Or a leadership challenge is decided, may loses triggering above corbyn as pm scenario. Or she wins and...

Man, I may have muddled myself.


Last edited by Snail on Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was already made plain in the referendum that leaving meant leaving the customs union, the single market and the EU courts would no longer have jurisdiction over our legislature.

Those pushing for a "people's vote" know this and are lying about "giving the people the final say".

Such people should just come clean and admit what they really are. Which is to say, anti-democrats. There is a word, by the way, that is used to describe people who do not believe in democracy and, instead, think that all political decisions should be made only by those who are "worthy" enough to make them. Or, that the "deporables" should be made to vote again until they give the "correct" result. A word much abused and debased by, irony of ironies, the bourgeois, liberal, faux-left when they wish to airily dismiss anyone who does not share their ideological world view.

That word is fascist. Whether or not those pushing for second referendum want to admit it, what they are in fact supporting is a kind of fascism. A very British kind of fascism of course. But, fascism nonetheless and if the political class, cheered on by the petite-bourgeois portion of the wider population, get their way and overturn the biggest democratic mandate in this country's history with this draft agreement or whether it is via a "people's vote", there will be a major realignment of British politics. And that's if we are lucky.

If we are not, there will be bloodshed as a consequence of this treachery.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agee, and I don't know if I would vote again. Fake democracy almost. But you have to be one of two people when voting: I'm an ordinary voter who believes my vote is meaningful, and I'm a voter who realizes my vote may not be meaningful but votes anyway. Until it becomes obvious that something is wrong with our democracy. I'll probably edit later or even delete!
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9874
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Snail wrote:
It seems the least messy approach is following what tony blair said in his interview today. That is, an (un)apologetic May puts this to parliament. The deal gets voted down, making it unacceptable and forgotten about. Followed by a quick new referendum giving the choice Remain or No (barbones?) Deal.


If remain, up to eu to accept. If not then no deal.

With a ge and future pm corbyn, maybe something like this suits all political players better. Or maybe at least less damaging.

But, from above link, eu definately opposes this? Or a leadership challenge is decided, may loses triggering above corbyn as pm scenario. Or she wins and...

Man, I may have muddled myself.


The EU would almost certainly allow the UK to cancel brexit. The interview with Blair was interesting though - if he's right, and that the EU might well be willing to let the UK remain with stricter control on freedom of movement, then it is a gamechanger. The problem the EU has with the UK cancelling brexit is that if the elements that caused the brexit vote in the first place are not addressed then there will be another crisis further down the line. But if instead they budge on freedom of movement, it might instead lead to the UK remaining in the EU in a more stable manner, without future threat of disruption or leaving.

It now looks very likely that May is going to face a vote of no confidence by the tory party, probably tomorrow. No idea what the result is likely to be.

It also looks almost certain that the deal will be rejected by parliament, but nobody appears to know what will happen after that.

Which means we are no closer to finding out what the final outcome of this process is going to be.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's too late, I think now, for the issue of freedom of movement to be sufficient. We now have the prospect of an EU army. Not to mention the poisoning of what little trust remained with the EU following the dangerous and poisonous games they have played with the Irish border.

Too little too late.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 920
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Besides which, the EU will be ditching freedom of movement in all regions eventually because of the havoc caused, so we will have no advantage. I agree with LJ that the endless marketing of fear and lies for 2 years has pissed everyone in the UK off. I think even less of the EU slush fund than I did before. It's a great shame because the logical harmonisation of standards, safety laws etc was a useful idea.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dominic Raab has resigned
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1810

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Esther McVey has gone as well
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