PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Are we reaching Peak Oil or Peak Oil Demand?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> News
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10472
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject: Are we reaching Peak Oil or Peak Oil Demand? Reply with quote

Extract from an article on MoneyWeek saying that lack of investment in new oil could lead us to Peak oil in the early 2020s, unless renewables and electric cars save us.

Quote:
Amid talk of “super-spikes” and shortages – are we near peak oil bullishness?

The chief executive of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant, Saudi Aramco, has warned of an upcoming oil supply crunch.

Gosh, you might think, there’s a surprise. “Man who is trying to sell a massive oil company for a huge amount of money claims that we’re running out of oil.” As headlines go, it’s right up there with “Estate agents say temporary dip in house prices is a great buying opportunity.”

But let’s not be too cynical. The oil market has become rather more interesting in recent months. It can’t quite seem to work out whether it’s coming or going.

So what’s going on?

Oil companies aren’t exploring for ‘big finds’ anymore

Amin Nasser is the chief executive of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Financial Times, he argues that US shale oil can’t meet global demand alone.

His point is that shareholder-owned oil companies around the world have pulled back from investing big sums in long-term mega-projects. Instead, they’d rather put money into shorter-term, less risky things, such as shale fields, where they can unlock the oil - and thus the cashflow - a lot faster.

Clearly, Nasser - as the manager of Saudi Arabia’s fields, the very definition of a long-term mega-project - has his own drum to bang here. But he’s not the only one concerned about long-term investment.

The International Energy Agency, says the FT, notes that a lack of investment in “new large-scale projects will lead to a supply shortfall in the early 2020s just as US shale production plateaus.”

Meanwhile, one US analyst (Bernstein Research, if you care) warned that oil prices could “super-spike" to more than $150 a barrel as a direct result of this lack of investment.

Bernstein notes that 15 companies account for 80% of the world’s oil reserves. Only two of them are investing anything like enough money in more production. The industry’s re-investment ratio (cash flow vs investment in exploration and production) is at its lowest level “in a generation.”

Big companies had 15 years worth of reserves left in 2000. Now that’s down to just ten years.

If oil demand peaks before 2030 – due to electric cars and renewables and the like – then everything will be fine. Oil companies will be proved right and their drive to become part-renewable companies will have paid off.

Yet as CNBC notes, quoting Bernstein’s somewhat breathless note, if the alternatives don’t work out, and a lack of investment leaves us short of oil, then clearly, we can expect higher prices. “Any shortfall in supply will result in a super-spike in prices, potentially much larger than the $150 per barrel spike witnessed in 2008.”

Are you getting deja vu here? I mean, I swear that it’s only three years ago that everyone was talking about how we’d have to leave all the oil in the ground because we were going to end up with fully electric cars anyway. We were hitting “peak oil demand”.

And in the oil boom before that, it was all about “peak oil supply” and how we were genuinely running out of oil. I remember, near the start of my career, writing earnest pieces explaining the mechanics of “peak oil”, and how it kicked in once you’d got to the “hard-to-reach” bit of the oil well.

I mean, it’s almost as if the price dictates the narrative rather than the other way around.

_________________
As Steve Keen puts it: “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse.” Economics ignores this which is why economics is broken.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6061
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where do electric car get their electricity from?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10472
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Solar panels?
_________________
As Steve Keen puts it: “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse.” Economics ignores this which is why economics is broken.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6726
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Where do electric car get their electricity from?


In the vast majority of cases from the grid. The mix of energy sources used to produce UK grid electricity varies continually but a significant percentage is now renewable, wind, solar, and hydro.
This percentage is expected to increase in years to come, as more wind and solar capacity is built.
Tidal power is a future possibility, significant expansion of hydropower seems unlikely.

A few EVS are no doubt charged in off grid premises but would represent a tiny minority.
_________________
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6726
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Solar panels?


Yes, though normally indirectly via grid tied PV and a grid supplied EV charger.
There is growing interest in the fast charging of EVs at work places and supermarkets, this would largely be during the day and the energy used could be offset by large PV arrays.
_________________
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10472
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
.... A few EVS are no doubt charged in off grid premises but would represent a tiny minority.


You would need a massive generator or array to charge an electric car. I've settled for an electric bike instead.
_________________
As Steve Keen puts it: “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse.” Economics ignores this which is why economics is broken.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6061
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In what alternative universe that obeys as yet unknown laws of thermodynamics are solar panels expected to power the UK vehicle fleet in addition to the rest of the UK's electrical needs.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6726
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oil is not going to vanish overnight, unless as part of a wider TEOTWAWKI scenario, and there is therefore no near term need to transition the whole vehicle fleet to electrics.
If done gradually I see no reason why EVs should not largely replace oil powered vehicles.
The transmission and distribution of electricity are mature technologies and well able to cope with steady load growth for EV charging.
Electricity production from wind or solar energy is also now a mature technology well capable of expansion.
_________________
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 407
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Electric cars could help to alleviate the worst effects of a supply crunch but given the rapid decline in North Sea Oil production (halved in 10 to 15 years) the same could happen worldwide and cause great disruption I don't think electric cars will be in service in sufficient numbers to completely offset the crunch.

As far as I know an electric car needs about 200 watt hours per mile. If a car is driven for 15000 miles a year it will need 3000 kWh per annum. If this is to be offset using solar in the UK the annual insolation of the UK is 900 kWh per m2 per year. Solar panels are about 15% efficient so one square metre of panels will give you about 135kWh per year. Hence you will need 22 m2 of panels per car to completely offset the cost. I would guess that this is just about possible on the roof of a typical UK detached house but not every car owner lives in a detached house and some may have more than one car. We could also consider that the solar power is not delivered equally throughout the year and a car may not be 'at home' when solar energy is delivered.
So I don't think all cars could be immediately solar powered but I think a significant contribution could be made in many individual circumstances.
_________________
G'Day cobber!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10472
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If a house is generating from PV that power goes into the grid so if a car is not at home but connected to the grid elsewhere it will make little difference to the overall situation.

We also have considerable wind, wave and tidal resources which are available all year round and 24/7 to an extent.
_________________
As Steve Keen puts it: “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse.” Economics ignores this which is why economics is broken.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5383
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even the most efficient electric car averages 250wH per mile averaged over all weather and driving conditions. Nearer 350wH at the luxury end of the market.
The trend is to bigger, heavier cars with longer range and more powerful motors. This will reduce efficiency.

However, average UK miles per year is less than 15000 per car and modern PV panels are closer to 20% and insolation is highest in the densely populated south of the country. It would still take a lot of domestic PV to power all UK cars from that source alone.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 407
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Even the most efficient electric car averages 250wH per mile averaged over all weather and driving conditions. Nearer 350wH at the luxury end of the market.
The trend is to bigger, heavier cars with longer range and more powerful motors. This will reduce efficiency.

However, average UK miles per year is less than 15000 per car and modern PV panels are closer to 20% and insolation is highest in the densely populated south of the country. It would still take a lot of domestic PV to power all UK cars from that source alone.


So the idea is plausible for people living in larger houses who don't drive their car for work which could cover a lot of the London commuter belt. I agree with Ken on the need for grid feed in. Another suggestion from another thread is that should new houses have chargers built in. I would suggest that the answer to that is no. Workplaces with carparks for staff should be forced to have heavy duty chargers. A trickle charger for the home should suffice and maybe even be better for the grid.
_________________
G'Day cobber!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10472
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We need to start building properly insulated houses first to get overall energy demand down before we start adding fancy bits like fast chargers. Fabric first is by far the most economic and efficient way to go. (unless you're an energy company!)
_________________
As Steve Keen puts it: “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse.” Economics ignores this which is why economics is broken.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10472
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We need to start building properly insulated houses first to get overall energy demand down before we start adding fancy bits like fast chargers. Fabric first is by far the most economic and efficient way to go. (unless you're an energy company!)
_________________
As Steve Keen puts it: “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse.” Economics ignores this which is why economics is broken.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> News All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group