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Brexit process
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4185
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Predicting specific timelines is a mug's game. But, if pushed I can't see things panning out as they are any longer than another decade or so before things start to get really unpleasant on home turf. And by unpleasant, I think the kind of breakdown we had in NI, but across the entire UK, or something like it, is not out of the realms of possibility. Ironically, the only thing that is likely to forestall or at least mitigate the above is a nationalist AND socialist government taking the reigns of power through the democratic process and enacting measures that will appease the mass of people. To the extent that both nationalism and socialism are being thoroughly resisted by the existing political class and the mass media that supports it, will only mean that when the pendulum finally swings, that swing will be all the more violent. And we may just end up with the nationalism.

I also think all of the above is coming to countries on the European continent quite a bit sooner.


Oddly enough I agree with you Little John.

I think by 2030 the chances of serious civil unrest is high for the UK. I don't think the Brexit outcome will trigger it, as the section of the British electorate that is most likely to riot is the working classes.

These voters voted for Brexit primarily to gain control of the borders and leaving the single market will deliver that outcome.

It will be the further collapse of our current status quo political economic model that will likely lead to serious unrest. That will be triggered by energy shortages which will kick in by the end of the next decade.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Before things get totally surreal can somebody please explain to me just who will benefit from Brexit and how they will benefit?
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Democrats will benefit. They will benefit by having more democracy.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We should save money by leaving the EU, and should not have to contribute to the coming bailout of Italy, and whoever busts after Italy.

We should be able to ditch some of the sillier EU regulations, whilst hopefully adopting some of the more sensible bits.

We should have more control over our borders.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5850479/PETER-OBORNE-Corbyn-man-saves-Brexit.html

Quote:
Yet Corbyn's decision to neuter his own pro-Brussels MPs by ordering abstention helped ensure the Prime Minister avoided what would have been a calamitous defeat.


Agree with this analysis. Membership of the EEA, aka soft Brexit, was a real risk during that vote. Corbyn has saved the prospects of a harder Brexit, maybe not the hard/clean Brexit of some of those on this forum, but at least a semi-soft Brexit.

As the BB writes:

https://eqr.berenberg.de/showdoc/ial/39E35A939BC4DF155A47E39DCDA9B72C?cs=1&sb_userid=59130614&sb_eventid=145301

Quote:
Semi-soft Brexit (40% chance): This remains the most likely scenario. The UK stays close enough to EU rules for many goods – ie a customs “arrangement’” and some services to avoid a hard border in Ireland. UK remainers could support a deal that keeps the UK partly aligned with the EU, while the Brexiteers could back such an agreement as it would offer the UK room to pursue its non-EU ambitions at least for services.


The table 13 is also very good - sums up where we will likely end up.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
We should save money by leaving the EU, and should not have to contribute to the coming bailout of Italy, and whoever busts after Italy.

We should be able to ditch some of the sillier EU regulations, whilst hopefully adopting some of the more sensible bits.

We should have more control over our borders.


But will you? My cynical view is that nobody will be satisfied with what eventually comes to pass.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
adam2 wrote:
We should save money by leaving the EU, and should not have to contribute to the coming bailout of Italy, and whoever busts after Italy.

We should be able to ditch some of the sillier EU regulations, whilst hopefully adopting some of the more sensible bits.

We should have more control over our borders.


But will you? My cynical view is that nobody will be satisfied with what eventually comes to pass.


I agree that only a small minority will be pleased with the eventual outcome.
Presuming that we do actually leave, then remainers are pretty well certain to be dissatisfied.
And a fair proportion of leavers will be also be dissatisfied, since whilst supporting leaving in general terms they will believe that it should have been done differently.

Had the vote been the other way, then leavers would obviously have been dissatisfied, and many remainers also would have wanted to remain but on different terms, and would also have been unhappy.

That however is life.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lets not forget that we won't get a final deal by the end of 2020.

Most people will be sick of hearing about Brexit by then. After all, it would be 5 years by then!
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are both ignoring the trajectory of history. In five year's time Leavers will be even more pissed off than they are now and a certain portion of Remainers will have joined them in that sentiment.

Ten years from now, a massive majority will be Leavers. Assuming there is anything left to for the remaining Remainers to remain with by then anyway. Twenty years form now, the majority of mainstream politicians of today will be branded as traitors to their nation - and not just for the way Brexit has been handled.


Last edited by Little John on Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:57 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4185
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
You are both ignoring the trajectory of history. In five year's time Leavers will be even more pissed off than they are now and a certain portion of Remainers will have joined them in that sentiment.

Ten years from now, a massive majority will be Remainers. Assuming there is anything left to Remain with by then anyway. Twenty years form now, the majority of mainstream politicians of today will be branded as traitors to their nation - and not just for the way Brexit has been handled.


You should have voted Tory in May 2017 if you felt so strongly about a hard Brexit. Got no sympathy with you.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am a socialist by virtue of my natural inclinations.

I am a nationalist by virtue of an intellectual acceptance of the inevitability of what is to come and what is inevitably required to survive it.

It is clear that Labour are not capable of meeting the challenge of what is to come. However, it is even more clear the same is true of the Tories for slightly different, but related reasons.

I do not need your sympathy.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Little John wrote:
You are both ignoring the trajectory of history. In five year's time Leavers will be even more pissed off than they are now and a certain portion of Remainers will have joined them in that sentiment.

Ten years from now, a massive majority will be Remainers. Assuming there is anything left to Remain with by then anyway. Twenty years form now, the majority of mainstream politicians of today will be branded as traitors to their nation - and not just for the way Brexit has been handled.


You should have voted Tory in May 2017 if you felt so strongly about a hard Brexit. Got no sympathy with you.


I am not sure there would have been a hard brexit had TM won a larger majority in 2017, and that election wasn't just about brexit anyway.

Had TM won a larger majority, it would have just meant the "rebels" would have been more comfortable causing her problems, because they wouldn't have had to risk bringing their own government down in if they threw spanners in the brexit works. Remember she was a remainer, and never supported a hard brexit (never meant "no deal is a better than a bad deal", even if she said it).
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The ge was called on Brexit and giving May a big mandate to take on Brussels.

The Labour Leave vote decided to keep voting Labour rather then vote Tory (for the first and if so, last time).

Labour, despite Corbyn's Brexiteer instincts, is far more united in their support for a soft Brexit then the Tory MPs.

We will never know for certain but it seems fair to assume that May would have had better leverage in the negotiations with a large majority for her hard Brexit plans then the current situation.

If you wanted a hard Brexit, the best thing was to vote Tory in 2017. After 2020, the whole thing would have been done and voting Corbyn would make logical sense, if you are a socialist and a nationalist.

By voting Labour in 2017, you essentially voted for a softer Brexit.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I accept the argument about Labour leave voters (which is to say, 70% of all Labour constituencies - if constituencies are mapped onto the referendum result, voted to leave) having been betrayed by the PLP.

Which is why, despite the shambolic nature of this government, they are currently leading Labour, at the last polling, by 7%.

If Labour do not significantly change their tune on Brexit before the next GE, I thin it highly likely they will lose that GE. However, they have gone so far down the path of reneging on their initial pledge to "honour" the referendum result that it may already be too late for them to change their tune believably now.

So, I have fully acknowledged Labour's part in the mess we are currently in. Because I am honest with myself as well as you.

Do you have the capacity to demonstrate a similar honesty vis a vis the Tories' role in all of this LB? Or, are the kind of unthinking tribal loyalties you are accusing me of, going to stop you from doing that?
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the next GE is after Brexit, Labour's stance on it won't make any difference.
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