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Lord Beria3
Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4174
Location: Moscow Russia
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 Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:26 pm Post subject: Update on Peak Oil |
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https://www.financialsense.com/perfect-energy-storm
The FS team do a great podcast on why peak oil never went away and the dynamics within the global oil market.
They cover the alleged "peak demand" story, the massive rise of US shale oil and the unreported fact that depletion rates are now 6%.
Summary: a major supply crunch is looming in 2/3 years (even if there is a recession next year which is considered likely).
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Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction |
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Lord Beria3
Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4174
Location: Moscow Russia
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johnhemming2
Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2163
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| Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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This is always a useful tool for looking back
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
What happened just over 10 years ago was the conventional peak which was accompanied with a price spike and continual removals from stocks.
This could have started in early 2017, but I think it is too soon to tell.
I think it is extractors limits rather than geological limits that are key at the moment. |
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vtsnowedin
Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4664
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:02 am Post subject: |
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| johnhemming2 wrote: |
I think it is extractors limits rather than geological limits that are key at the moment. |
Was that not always the case and prediction? |
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johnhemming2
Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2163
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:56 am Post subject: |
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In the period 2005-10 I think the geological limits were most important in the sense of a peaking of conventional oil.
In terms of this history of carbon based fuels (starting with wood and charcoal) we have moved into an era where the sources are harder to obtain rather than more convenient. |
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vtsnowedin
Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4664
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:09 am Post subject: |
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| johnhemming2 wrote: | In the period 2005-10 I think the geological limits were most important in the sense of a peaking of conventional oil.
In terms of this history of carbon based fuels (starting with wood and charcoal) we have moved into an era where the sources are harder to obtain rather than more convenient. |
I would place that point near 1980 and the development of the North sea oil fields and deep water exploration. |
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johnhemming2
Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2163
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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| vtsnowedin wrote: | | johnhemming2 wrote: | In the period 2005-10 I think the geological limits were most important in the sense of a peaking of conventional oil.
In terms of this history of carbon based fuels (starting with wood and charcoal) we have moved into an era where the sources are harder to obtain rather than more convenient. |
I would place that point near 1980 and the development of the North sea oil fields and deep water exploration. |
It is true that the events of the 70s speeded up going for the North Sea and Deep Water.
However, I think the main cause now is geology rather the politics. |
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