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Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
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Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Gas prices have again increased significantly, though have not reached the levels set a couple of months ago.
Stocks are at about 15,500GWH following an LNG delivery.

I suspect that a strictly unofficial gas panic may have started today, electricity from CCGT plant has suddenly declined and that from coal burning has increased to levels not often seen these days.

In the early hours of today, electricity from coal actually exceeded that from gas, a most unusual situation in recent times.


Cannot see why in the absence of other suitable baseload generation options (there aren't any right now) and global warming considerations aside that coal does not always generate 10GW in the UK. I am sure the fact that the power plants are all very old has something to do with it. Probably gas is burnt when cheap and available and the market based approach is king but when Mr Putin turns off the gas tap and the UK has a week of gas left in storage then trouble ensues. Mr Putin is also a big supplier of coal to the UK as well.

As it happens, right now nuclear, wind and coal are all greater than gas in generation. Unprecedented!
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indeed, historically of course coal was routinely greater than gas, but tonight's position whereby gas is in fourth place, behind wind, coal, and nuclear is most unusual and may well be unprecedented.
Back in Ye Olde days, coal and nuclear routinely exceeded gas, but there was no significant electricity from wind back then.

The sudden drop in gas burnt for electricity production does to me suggest some form of unofficial panic, instruction, or request to save gas.

On strictly economic grounds, coal for base load has a lot to commend it, but is now out of favour due to climate change concerns.
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Indeed, historically of course coal was routinely greater than gas, but tonight's position whereby gas is in fourth place, behind wind, coal, and nuclear is most unusual and may well be unprecedented.
Back in Ye Olde days, coal and nuclear routinely exceeded gas, but there was no significant electricity from wind back then.

The sudden drop in gas burnt for electricity production does to me suggest some form of unofficial panic, instruction, or request to save gas.

On strictly economic grounds, coal for base load has a lot to commend it, but is now out of favour due to climate change concerns.


Yes it looks suspiciously like a panicgram instruction being issued to the "free" market. However it should be borne in mind that the environmental damage caused by burning coal is not restricted to ghg emissions alone.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now reported by MSM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43182523
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Now reported by MSM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43182523


"However, competition between energy suppliers could keep tariffs low, said Henry Edwardes-Evans, of energy commodities assessors Platts."

Great, everything's tickety-boo! Very Happy
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Coal is up to 11Gw, the highest for some time (years?) as temperatures fall to the lowest in the south at least for several years. Wind is about 5Gw which is helping conserve some gas at least. Minus six Celsius around here
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The gas price has increased very significantly today, up to about 70 pence a therm or nearly 2.5 pence a KWH.

No wonder coal is being used at such a rate, still over 11GW.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A huge increase in the gas price today, to a new all time record.
Over £1 a therm or about 4 pence a KWH.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I presume the majors have already contracted and it is only a proportion that trade at the spot price.

Do you have any idea as to the amount of gas traded at the spot price.

Cold weather is exactly what challenges the system both for gas and electricity. I don't know, but I think it is probably colder currently than it has been for some time.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regret do not know how much gas is purchased at the present price, and how much is on advance contracts.

Gas stocks now down to about 12,700GWH
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:

Gas stocks now down to about 12,700GWH

What is the daily movement on gas stocks?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yesterdays stock figure was 14,100GWH, Today it is 12,700.

So in 24 hours we have used 1,400GWH from storage. If it carries on at that rate we have enough left for about another 9 days.
Note that the 9 days estimate is presuming normal supplies from the North sea, and normal imports via pipelines. In the unlikely event that we became totally reliant on stocks it would all be gone in two or three days, not nine days.

Sometimes of course stocks are used more slowly, or are added to, so we will probably scrape through all right, provided of course that nothing else breaks, blows up, goes on strike or is attacked by terrorists.

What we do not know is how low stocks would be allowed to fall before the government would have to actually DO something.
By "do something" I mean actual physical measures to reduce consumption, not issuing soothing statements.

I suspect that a lot of fingers are being crossed in high places.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
What we do not know is how low stocks would be allowed to fall before the government would have to actually DO something.
By "do something" I mean actual physical measures to reduce consumption, not issuing soothing statements.

Its an Ofgem thing rather than a ministerial thing. What you would expect is for some larger users (not CCGT) to decide not to burn gas for some reason - possibly the ability to sell their gas at a higher price. If it really gets difficult then some users can be shut down.
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gas deficit warning this morning from National Grid - due to LNG supply problems at Milford Haven, though Isle of Grain looks dodgy too. More info here:
http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/national-grid-uk-gas-deficit-warning-1.html
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

National Grid's message stream on Prevailing View now says:
Quote:
National Grid has a requirement to buy locational gas. Shippers are requested to post offers on the OCM locational market at all locations

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingView/Index
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