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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8583
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually this is becoming clearer to me now. There is a paradox at work.

Today May was visited by a bunch of European business leaders telling her the uncertainty has to end. She's being told the same thing by British businesses. They need to know which outcome to prepare for, because preparing for any of three is going to be catastrophically expensive.

But it is precisely that uncertainty that is keeping her in office. If she was to take steps to end the uncertainty - to commit to leaving without a deal, to say she is going to revoke article 50, or to commit to a soft brexit (regardless of this being a terrible negotiating move), then one group or another of her own MPs will have nothing left to lose by removing her.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still think no deal is the most likely (and default position) due to no faction in the uk being prepared to compromise. The EU will be fine without the UKs contribution, we will still buy far too many german cars, eu produced food (not much choice here) etc, it'll just cost us more. The other agreements that were bundled into the EU are going to be a far bigger problem along with the corresponding regulatory agencies which currently don't exist (how much of the £350m/week will these consume...?)

I don't feel the EU is vindictive enough to offer a stupidly bad deal to the UK right at the end - it won't be a good deal but not the worst possible one, however I think UK politics is utterly ****** up atm mainly over this stupid issue and I can't see it being resolved until it's a moot point (i.e. after brexit).

Lets all hope for a resolution to this that will cause the least damage to the UK whatever you feel that may be.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
I still think no deal is the most likely...

What do you mean by 'no deal'? Literally no flights and no movement of radioactive materials (or pets) and millions of people in countries they no longer have any right to be in? Or are you actually expecting no deal... except for x, y and z where we will have deals?

Interesting that with everything going on at the moment, May choses today to poke Russia with pointy stick:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/13/theresa-may-accuses-russia-of-interfering-in-elections-and-fake-news
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There could be a "no deal deal", which basically means some things which can be agreed reasonably easily, like flights still moving, while the more difficult things are really no deal.

Chris, you seem to think it would be possible to just cobble together a deal that keeps goods moving "frictionlessly", or solves the Irish border problem. I don't understand why. The reason these problems are causing so much difficulty is precisely because they don't have easy solutions. The Irish border is the perfect example. Nobody wants to see a hard border in Ireland, but the alternatives are all unacceptable. We cannot have one part of the UK remaining in the customs union while the rest leaves, creating an internal hard border within the UK itself. That would be even worse than a hard border in Ireland. But if we rule that out, then the only other solution fatally compromises the integrity of the borders of the EU. All possible solutions are totally unacceptable either to the UK, the EU or Ireland. There is no quick fix available, and that means a hard border in Ireland is a very real possibility.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Chris, you seem to think it would be possible to just cobble together a deal that keeps goods moving "frictionlessly", or solves the Irish border problem.

I don't think that at all. I think these problems are too hard to solve satisfactory which is why I think the most likely outcome is some kind of semi-permanent transitional twilight. With no one willing to either cancel Brexit entity or take responsibility for leaving.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Chris, you seem to think it would be possible to just cobble together a deal that keeps goods moving "frictionlessly", or solves the Irish border problem.

I don't think that at all. I think these problems are too hard to solve satisfactory which is why I think the most likely outcome is some kind of semi-permanent transitional twilight. With no one willing to either cancel Brexit entity or take responsibility for leaving.
In which case, we get a British Le-Pen in due course. You are on the wrong side of history Chris Vernon.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
I still think no deal is the most likely (and default position) due to no faction in the uk being prepared to compromise. The EU will be fine without the UKs contribution, we will still buy far too many german cars, eu produced food (not much choice here) etc, it'll just cost us more. The other agreements that were bundled into the EU are going to be a far bigger problem along with the corresponding regulatory agencies which currently don't exist (how much of the £350m/week will these consume...?)

I don't feel the EU is vindictive enough to offer a stupidly bad deal to the UK right at the end - it won't be a good deal but not the worst possible one, however I think UK politics is utterly ****** up atm mainly over this stupid issue and I can't see it being resolved until it's a moot point (i.e. after brexit).

Lets all hope for a resolution to this that will cause the least damage to the UK whatever you feel that may be.


Someone in the EU is going to have to pick up the tab for our lost contribution, whether it is Germany and The Netherlands, which are the only other net contributors to the EU budget as far as I know, or the other 20 odd countries who will lose their subsidy; and I can't see them voting for that any time soon!

As far as increased costs for imports go that entirely depends on our government as it would be our government who impose, or not, any tariffs. I can't see our government wanting to increase costs to its voters by putting a tariff on food from the EU; German cars maybe to reduce competition in the car market here but not food. This also applies to EU nationals living in the UK; our government isn't going to want to cause a mass exit of workers so they will be allowed to stay, subject to British law not the ECJ, because that is within our remit. Whether or not the EU tells their nationals to come home and whether they listen is another thing entirely.

As far as things like flights go, I can't see Spain, Italy or Greece wanting to interfere with the free movement of British holiday makers so that will continue as before. There are too many vested interests at work to stop all trade and movement.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
cubes wrote:
I still think no deal is the most likely (and default position) due to no faction in the uk being prepared to compromise. The EU will be fine without the UKs contribution, we will still buy far too many german cars, eu produced food (not much choice here) etc, it'll just cost us more. The other agreements that were bundled into the EU are going to be a far bigger problem along with the corresponding regulatory agencies which currently don't exist (how much of the £350m/week will these consume...?)

I don't feel the EU is vindictive enough to offer a stupidly bad deal to the UK right at the end - it won't be a good deal but not the worst possible one, however I think UK politics is utterly ****** up atm mainly over this stupid issue and I can't see it being resolved until it's a moot point (i.e. after brexit).

Lets all hope for a resolution to this that will cause the least damage to the UK whatever you feel that may be.


Someone in the EU is going to have to pick up the tab for our lost contribution, whether it is Germany and The Netherlands, which are the only other net contributors to the EU budget as far as I know, or the other 20 odd countries who will lose their subsidy; and I can't see them voting for that any time soon!


Three problems about staying in the EU.
Capital losses to the rest of Europe. 5-9bn.
Trade losses to the rest of Europe. 80bn
Labour/Welfare losses to the rest of Europe. No idea.

People that you are giving close to 90bn a year are not necessarily giving you the best advice. I don't know how important the subsidies really are to the Europeans but to me now as an outsider in Australia, the UK loses, year-on-year, decade-on-decade about 5 to 9 billion in money to the EU, 80 billion in trade and an quantifiable loss in labour market competition and welfare competition. To an Australian or American it's madness that you cannot run your own economy.

If people are happy with that, vote to stay, but don't whine if a majority think they can do better. It can't go on like that for ever.

I don't think a no-deal Brexit will benefit anyone short term but I do think the UK will benefit more long term by stemming the financial losses. there is a very good reason why all the utilities, many banks etc are now foreign owned - in order to pay for things.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am sure that the NHS, it industry, fruit and veg growing and many other sectors will collapse in a hard brexit as skilled labour or cheap labour leaves. Car and aviation manufacturing will be a big mess as cars are bolted together from thousands of components that cross the channel multiple times as raw materials are made into widgets and then sub assemblies etc.
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If article 50 was reversed, I wonder if the EU would then send us a bill for all the money spent on the negotiation process?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would think that they would be after what is left of our rebate after Tony Blair gave away part of it for nothing a few years ago. If we want back in I think the rest of that would go, at the very least.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
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Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
I would think that they would be after what is left of our rebate after Tony Blair gave away part of it for nothing a few years ago. If we want back in I think the rest of that would go, at the very least.


British politician's negotiating skills do seem to be somewhat lacking, even going back to Munich and Chamberlain. Once in a while you get a good one but they are the exception and not the rule. Blair in particular seemed to be a deal-at-any-price kind of person, the consequences of which may come back to haunt the UK. It didn't help that he had some kind of character flaw that he wanted to be liked. New Labour - New Danger indeed!
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BritDownUnder



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
I am sure that the NHS, it industry, fruit and veg growing and many other sectors will collapse in a hard brexit as skilled labour or cheap labour leaves. Car and aviation manufacturing will be a big mess as cars are bolted together from thousands of components that cross the channel multiple times as raw materials are made into widgets and then sub assemblies etc.


As a student I worked in a vegetable processing factory in the UK and there seemed to be no shortage of labour in early '90s - good money too at 7 pounds an hour. When I returned to the UK in 2006 for a Christmas visit and enquired about any similar work they looked at me as if I was mad. The Poles had taken all these jobs. Probably there is a disincentive too as if you give out free houses and free money then people are less likely to work for money. I am sure that British people are getting lazier too recently which does not help.

I take your point about the modern production line techniques. Long term it may help UK manufacturers to source more things from the UK instead of importing. Maybe they should get ready now as March 2019 is still 18 months away. As for car manufacturing, a good way of heading off any threat from Europe would simply be to ban all sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles in the UK one day after Brexit. That might change a few German political minds.

On a more general note I am amazed by how easily the UK media, especially the left wing part of it, seems to accept verbatim all the doom and gloom European propaganda about Brexit. I am sure that Australia and NZ will be more than happy to send food to the UK and accept tourists from the UK if the Spanish no longer wish to have a 15 billion pound trade surplus with you. Australia even manufactures its own medical isotopes at the Lucas Heights reactor near to Sydney and I am sure they would lend them to you at a price (assuming the Chinese masters tell Malcolm Turnbull it is OK to do so).
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mikepepler wrote:
If article 50 was reversed, I wonder if the EU would then send us a bill for all the money spent on the negotiation process?


They might do, but there would be no legal obligation to pay it.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
mikepepler wrote:
If article 50 was reversed, I wonder if the EU would then send us a bill for all the money spent on the negotiation process?


They might do, but there would be no legal obligation to pay it.


It does beg the question though as to how much of the "negotiations" have been pure time wasting.
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