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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9876
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
No


No public disclosure of the legal advice??

Quote:

The "legalities" are neither here nor there.


The legalities are very much here and now. The arguments depend on the legalities. Whatever happens, I don't believe that withholding knowledge of the legal situation from the public is a legitimate or wise way to proceed.

Quote:

I may be mistaken here, but you're sounding like you might be a leaver with regrets UE.


There's nothing to indicate that in what I posted. I still want the UK to leave the EU - if anything my problem is that I dislike the way the negotiations are proceeding and I think the UK should play hardball. That even includes threatening to "rejoin" the EU as Mr uber-awkward in order to try to win concessions from them.

Quote:

Well - if so - you are entitled to those regrets. But, you are not entitled to expect or endorse this or any other government refuting the democratic process by reversing wholly or partially the decision to leave, unequivocally and without qualification. Or, for that matter, even threatening to.


Even if that threat provides a mechanism for getting a better deal (one way or another) out of the EU??

Quote:

To be absolutely clear about this; the terms of continued membership - whole or partial - are not on the table and should not be on the table to be used as some kind of bargaining chip.


If they are legal options, then they are on the table whether you like it or not. This really isn't over until it is over. I think it is a sort of bargaining chip, in a rather unorthodox way. It is a way of calling the EU's bluff. They are proceeding on the assumption that it is politically impossible for the UK to revoke Article 50, but I personally suspect if Juncker, Barnier and their cronies suspected a revocation of article 50 was a realistic possibility, they might just become a little more flexible either on the terms under which we leave, or under which we stay.

I think maybe where I differ from you is that I have different red lines. I'm not 100% opposed to the UK remaining part of the EU provided the terms of membership were substantially altered in ways that the EU so far has point blank refused to consider. At the moment this is not really a "negotiation" at all - it is more like the EU making a list of demands that the UK has to sign up to, with no reciprocal flexibility. I think it is possible that the final outcome of this whole process could be a substantially reformed EU rather than a UK-less EU. And I don't think this would necessarily be a bad thing - I'd need to see the details of any new arrangement before I'd be able to pass judgement.

But we need to be able to threaten them with something they seriously don't like, and I think a revocation of article 50 would be just that.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2159

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are limits to what the political process can achieve. The Brexit proposals are now coming up against reality.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 669
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
To be absolutely clear about this; the terms of continued membership - whole or partial - are not on the table and should not be on the table to be used as some kind of bargaining chip. This country is leaving the EU and if that does not now happen there will be bloodshed at some point over it.


You do realise that many people in this country (nearly half of whom voted!) wanted to stay? You realise many haven't changed their minds? You think this would have been over had leave lost? No decision is ever final in my experience.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9876
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
There are limits to what the political process can achieve. The Brexit proposals are now coming up against reality.


No. They are coming up against a bunch of arrogant w**kers at the EU, and we need to play hardball. We have not reached reality yet.

The UK is not powerless. We don't have zero cards to play. But we have to be prepared to both leave without a deal, and make life as miserable as possible for the EU if that happens. That requires courage. It is not a risk-free strategy. But the alternative is to lower our trousers and take our punishment like bad little schoolboys being punished by the headmaster.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2159

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
The UK is not powerless. We don't have zero cards to play.

True, but it is not a war. It is a negotiation and not a fight.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh! It's a fight alright. It's a fight for the future, or not, of the EU. If Britain gets a good deal on leaving there will be many EU countries who will want a similar deal and it would break the EU as it now is. We will only get a punitive deal or none at all.

I suspect that if we asked to revoke the Article 50 declaration there would be costs to us in that as well. The EU don't like our rebate for a start and I think we might find that we will lose that. We might also be forced into the Schengen zone which would mean that the camps in the mainland channel ports would become camps in the UK instead.

I think that we will end up with a choice between leaving with no deal, which I am happy with, or staying in and losing all our present "benefits". Putting that to a vote would get a very different vote to going back in on current terms.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9876
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:

I suspect that if we asked to revoke the Article 50 declaration there would be costs to us in that as well.


That's why the legal advice matters. I strongly suspect we don't have to "ask" to revoke Article 50. We can simply unilaterally revoke it, and there's nothing the EU can do, legally, to prevent that from happening.

Quote:

The EU don't like our rebate for a start and I think we might find that we will lose that. We might also be forced into the Schengen zone which would mean that the camps in the mainland channel ports would become camps in the UK instead.


Again, this is why it is important to know what the legalities actually are. Can the EU legally do this?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has got nothing to do with "legalities" and never has, fundamentally. The "legalities" are and always have been window dressing on the politics and, when push comes to shove, the politics will decide the outcome.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The EU may not like the rebate but not having it may actually help get more EU funding into the UK.

As I understand it, any EU grant etc going to the UK to set off against the rebate, hence the UK government not being keen for these to be applied for as essentially they're paying for it and we know our government of any colour hates spending money on people who actually need it rather their pet projects.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
This has got nothing to do with "legalities" and never has, fundamentally. The "legalities" are and always have been window dressing on the politics and, when push comes to shove, the politics will decide the outcome.


With respect, you don't seem to be taking any notice of what I am actually saying.

What I said is that if there is legal advice available to the government about whether or not Article 50 can be revoked, or not, then this advice should be known by the public. I can't think of any justification - certainly not any justification I'd expect you to accept - for keeping this information private. The very fact that it has not been made public makes it looks like the government is scared of the consequences of making it public. Possibly you are worried about this also?

Of course politics will decide the outcome, but not to the extent that politics can decide an outcome which is illegal. The range of outcomes that politics decides between is itself determined by what is legally possible. No politics can revoke article 50 if article 50 cannot legally be revoked.

I think this matters. I believe we are likely to end up with a choice between leaving with no deal, leaving with a terrible/punitive deal, or threatening to revoke article 50, or actually revoking article 50. And I would like to know whether or not the last two of those options are really options, regardless of the fact that some people, yourself included, find them politically unacceptable.

I truly believe that if the UK took the line "This is not a serious negotiation - it is a punitive negotiation, just demonstrating the arrogance of the EU - and therefore the UK has decided to keep open the option of unilaterally revoking Article 50 and remaining a full member of the EU, WITH A VETO over future EU business...." then might just have a near-miraculous effect on the arrogant bastards. The ability to revoke Article 50 is quite powerful, and right now the UK is short of powerful cards to play. We have the power to totally f*ck up the EU, and I think Mr Barnier and Mr Juncker need to be reminded of this.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4703
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like a hard "no deal" Brexit is rising.

The British government must start preparing for a failure of a deal in 2019 because, oddly enough, only when we are serious about preparing for a no deal, will the EU member states led by Germany see sense and start behaving constructively.

My base forecast is that a deal will be done but if the Germans don't start showing some reasonableness soon, the chances of the talks collapsing are rising. Sadly Merkel never did understand British politics, otherwise she would have shown greater flexibility to Cameron on immigration which would have probably prevented the Leave victory in the first place!
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Sadly Merkel never did understand British politics, otherwise she would have shown greater flexibility to Cameron on immigration which would have probably prevented the Leave victory in the first place!


It wasn't just Merkel, and it isn't just British politics "they" don't understand. It is the entire EU machine, as well as some elected European leaders. The problem is that they don't actually care what is going on at the grass roots level in member countries. They don't care what is happening in Greece, or Bulgaria, or in Dudley, England. All they care about is constructing a grand EU that is powerful enough to rival the US or Russia in terms of resources, military power and economics. And that means bigger is always better, and the more power that is centralised, and the greater the level of integration, the better. Nothing else matters. Yes, they don't understand, but more to the point they aren't even trying to understand. They don't care.

They also seemed to have learned nothing at all from the Brexit vote.

Personally I think a "no deal" is a very real possibility. I suspect that even when things start moving, the EU will not make enough concessions to make it worth the UK striking a deal. And yes it is partly because they don't understand internal British politics - they don't understand the level of support there would be for a government that was brave enough to go down the "no deal" path if the alternative is also pretty bad.

By the way - wouldn't you agree with me that having a "revoke Article 50 unilaterally" option on the table would be a good thing? Imagine you're there at those last minute talks, and the EU negotiators still don't know whether the UK is just going to pull the rug under the entire process and decide to stay for a while? Long enough to make sure the rules on leaving get changed, for example?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7020
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2017/oct/12/still-puzzled-by-the-brexit-vote-take-yourself-off-to-blakenall-heath?CMP=share_btn_fb

Quote:
The phone went one Sunday evening. It was the bishop of Wolverhampton, my then boss. There was this job he couldn’t find anyone to do. Would I go and look after a parish to the north of Walsall called Blakenall Heath? Big barn of a church, no money, struggling. Just for a bit, he said. I’d like you to pack up and go there in a couple of weeks. We did, with a new baby and no idea what we were letting ourselves in for.

People generally didn’t go to Blakenall Heath unless they came from there. Unemployed men would sit around in their front gardens on discarded sofas, looking bored. Some of my parishioners spent all day in their dressing gowns. Burned-out cars decorated the roadside. Back then the vicarage was ringed by flats whose residents would frequently shoot at each other with air rifles. At night, the pellets would ping off our roof. Even the local police didn’t like going into Blakenall Heath. It was treated as a ghetto.

Blakenall Heath seethed with the anger of the unheard. And that anger found its way into my bones. It wasn’t just about the poverty. It was deeper than that. As the months went by, I began to get some sense of what it felt like when nobody listened to or cared in the slightest about what you said. It felt like no one gave a shit. Every now and again the place would show up on some list of crap towns for posh people to snigger at. Other than that, you weren’t noticed.

In Blakenall Heath my politics changed. Both theologically and politically, my student liberalism had few answers for a place like this. Indeed, I began to suspect that the broadly progressive version of capitalism that I had accepted might even be a part of the problem. These weren’t the “left behinds” – a term that implies that with a quick hop and a skip they might just catch up. This place was the inevitable byproduct – waste product, even – of market forces, and the price that more prosperous parts of the country had secretly accepted as worth paying for the many other benefits that capitalism delivered to them. The problem was systemic.

In Walsall, 67.9% voted leave in the referendum, on a huge turnout. And then, this year, they voted out Walsall North’s longstanding Labour MP, David Winnick, who had campaigned to remain in the EU. Remainers will never understand what went on here if they think it’s just about money. Homo economicus – who seeks to optimise their economic prospects through rational self-interest – doesn’t live in Blakenall Heath. Homo economicus doesn’t buy his cooker through weekly instalments at BrightHouse at 69.9% APR. A remain campaigner told me about a doorstep encounter he had on a bombsite of a council estate in the Midlands. “You have a lot to lose financially if we leave the EU,” he explained, rationally.

“Oh, yes,” she gestured to her run-down surroundings, sarcastically. “I could lose all of this?” Which is why Brexit pub logic goes something like this: so what if the country collapses economically? At least then they will know what it feels like to be us.

Remain still don’t get why so many people voted leave. They keep repeating that it is the poor who will lose out the most, appealing to Homo economicus. They keep believing that it was stupidity or gullibility that made poor leavers side with dangerous fools like Boris Johnson. But that is not going to cut it. The people who really hate the way Brexit is going are the people who have got something to lose. When you have nothing to lose, being told you could lose it all doesn’t really count for much. Which is why the more Nick Clegg and his Waitrose friends speak of the coming apocalypse, the more some will feel: fine, bring it on.

This logic has understandably panicked the progressive middle classes. But the language of the cliff edge offers little fear to those well practised at falling off it. And until we find a radical way to rebalance our economy, such that all share in its benefits, the middle classes will find that democracy will sometimes hand power to those who are perfectly prepared to play chicken with economic failure.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 920
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Powerful stuff, and that's without mentioning the 65 years of immigration that have made Walsall, Tipton, Handsworth, Smethwick etc. what they are today.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 920
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another angry old man - JW, tries to get to get a handle on the slime of politics/economics.

In 1, 2 order:

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/10/12/slog-special-the-truth-about-data-lies-laid-bare-at-last/

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/10/13/fake-news-is-a-matter-of-opinion-fake-data-is-a-matter-of-fact/

John is usually on to something, but it's not always clear what that is [a bit like reality I suppose].
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