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Where are we on the Limits to Growth model?
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1863

PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The energy intensity of the GDP can change, but essentially resource constraints constrain economic activity.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4041
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So you accept that declining cheap conventional oil supplies will slow and destroy economic growth?

You also accept that our bond and share markets are largely predicated on future economic growth?
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think anyone denies that the issue of energy availability of whatever form underpins economic activity, the first derivative respect to time of which is called growth.

The more complex question is what limits there are. Conventional oil production peaked in the last decade. I haven't done the detailed figures, but I would personally expect the next crunch in the next decade rather than this one. I accept I may be wrong, but we will see it coming through price increases and stock depletion.

Given that people have been complaining a lot about "austerity" in the UK when public current spending on public services has been going up in cash terms and been roughly constant in real terms, I would expect a lot more complaints when resource issues hit. This is a mixture of a PV issue and a methane hydrates issue.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 13615
Location: way out west

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
In September he'll start an Economics degree course. Dinner convos are interesting...


Heh heh, I wish I was a fly on the wall. An economist on here would be interesting...
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4041
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/pentagon-study-declares-american-empire-is-collapsing-746754cdaebf

Very interesting report.

As Greer has predicted, the American empire is collapsing!

Quote:
An extraordinary new Pentagon study has concluded that the U.S.-backed international order established after World War 2 is “fraying” and may even be “collapsing”, leading the United States to lose its position of “primacy” in world affairs.

The solution proposed to protect U.S. power in this new “post-primacy” environment is, however, more of the same: more surveillance, more propaganda (“strategic manipulation of perceptions”) and more military expansionism.

The document concludes that the world has entered a fundamentally new phase of transformation in which U.S. power is in decline, international order is unravelling, and the authority of governments everywhere is crumbling.

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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1863

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's an article about a report. What is the report itself?

Adding to this, a while ago I read a really good book about the history of the last 500 years. I have just glanced at google about this and It wasn't the Usborne book.

It essentially concluded the political and economic power went hand in hand and if you did not have economic power you would lose military and political power.

The conclusions from this are resources are a good thing to have for a country (unsurprisingly) and that you should look at the economic strength of a country as a guide to its future political and military strength. On that basis the USA notwithstanding it electing probably its most incompetent president ever is in a good position.

Strangely enough those countries which conclude that politicians are the best people to organise everything (whether elected or not) tend to be the weakest in the world.
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Mr. Fox



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 483
Location: In the Dark

PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
That's an article about a report. What is the report itself?


Linked to in the third word of the article... "An extraordinary new Pentagon study"

https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1358

https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/download.cfm?q=1358 (PDF)

This new-fangled HTML thing takes some getting used to... Rolling Eyes
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1863

PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot looks like a management consultancy style report. I have better things to do with my time than to read it all, but it seems the sort of report that is difficult to disagree with.

Quote:
At Our Own Peril identifies this new or newly
recognized period as one of “post-U.S. primacy.”
In the team’s assessment, post-primacy has five interrelated characteristics:
• Hyperconnectivity and weaponization of information, disinformation, and
disaffection;
• A rapidly fracturing post-Cold War status quo;
• Proliferation, diversification, and atomization of effective counter-U.S. resistance;
• Resurgent but transformed great power competition; and,
• Violent or disruptive dissolution of political cohesion and identity.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 9533
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
.....

It essentially concluded the political and economic power went hand in hand and if you did not have economic power you would lose military and political power.

The conclusions from this are resources are a good thing to have for a country (unsurprisingly) and that you should look at the economic strength of a country as a guide to its future political and military strength. On that basis the USA notwithstanding it electing probably its most incompetent president ever is in a good position.

Strangely enough those countries which conclude that politicians are the best people to organise everything (whether elected or not) tend to be the weakest in the world.


The power of the US stemmed from WW2 when the country had control of the world's energy supply in the form of its own oil, its industrial strength was not bombed into oblivion and the rest of the industrial world was in hock to it for all the oil, munitions and food that they had to buy from the US. The US came out of WW2 in a position of massive military and economic power which it has, until recently, maintained.

In the past few decades it has lost its own cheap oil supply, it has exported many of its industrial jobs and this has had a deleterious effect on its economic pre/eminence; it has effectively diluted its economic power by exporting its jobs to China and by importing oil from the Middle East and other places. After WW2 the world was in hock to the US but now the US is in hock to the rest of the world but mainly China.

China is now the economic giant of the world with masses of cash to splash but they don't have the internal natural resources to match what the US once was. China is in a similar position to Japan just before WW2 where they are trying to expand their sphere of influence and control to give themselves the energy security that the US once had and that Japan craved before the war. Let's just hope that China doesn't feel the need to invade other countries to give them that "security". Their expansion into the South China Sea doesn't give me much hope in that regard though: if the bordering countries don't resist with US help the Chinese may feel emboldened to go further and countries like Australia may be next on the list.

China's Achilles heal, just as Japan's and Nazi Germany's was, is their lack of an indigenous oil supply. Look out for a massive expansion in China's missile carrying naval fleet to control the sea lanes with. An expansion of concealed oil pipe lines from Russia would be another pointer to danger although such lengthy fixed installations are vulnerable to attack while indigenous supplies are less so.

In time of war the US could expand its fracked oil supplies rapidly as the cost would not be of a limiting factor. china doesn't have that option so the US is still in a better place. It was a war which rescued the US from the economic doldrums of the 1930s but I don't think it would have the same effect now as the EROEI of their oil is no where near what it once was.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 13615
Location: way out west

PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
We haven't seen much drop in birthrate worldwide [assuming it's zero scaled]

What? That dotted line has gone down FAR more than the solid, 'prediction' one. To quote an example (that I'm particularly fond of) IRAN has had family size drop from nearly 6 children (in the 60s 70s) to just over 2 (today).

If fundie-Islamic IRAN can do it, anybody (who isn't in the throes of a war) can.

The war bit's crucial. Women often can't avoid sex in a war: they get it by force.


Here's a short piece for a bit more related perspective. The last line of the piece makes me think, America!

Quote:
The four key recommendations they identified are: have one fewer child, stop taking transatlantic flights, stop eating meat and don’t own a car. This is particularly true if you are a British, European, American, Australian or Canadian resident.

The report states: “A US family who chooses to have one fewer child would provide the same level of emissions reductions as 684 teenagers who choose to adopt comprehensive recycling for the the rest of their lives.”


Quote:
Regarding our identified high-impact actions, no guide recommended having fewer children or eating a plant based diet

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