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General Election June 8
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 851
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My prediction, for what it's worth:

Tories - small increase in seats, mainly at the expense of Labour - increase due to May being seen as most credible leader for Brexit negotiations
Labour - further shrinkage into their heartlands due to no clear message on Brexit and Corbyn factor
LibDems - reasonable increase due to attracting remainers, mainly at the expense of Tories. Not enough seats to alter overall balance
SNP - small losses - mostly to Tories
UKIP - no seats - oblivion
Greens - small increase, but nothing significant

Will I have to eat humble pie ?
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5201
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Voter apathy will be the biggest winner. I expect record low turnout, after a lack lustre campaign from all parties. We will be none the wiser how May will approach Brexit negotiations, and there will be mixed messages from Labour.

As always May will claim a mandate from a small minority of the electorate who actually voted for her. SInce most Tories will be returned regardless, it is impossible for the electorate to influence the balance of pro/anti Brexit MPs.

This election is all about extending and consolidating May's control of power. Nothing else.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 487
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My guess is that she knows brexit will be rapid and hard, because the EU will not play ball. She is trying to muster as much 'mandate' as possible, so that she can make choices that the media+city will howl over.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 7502

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
This election is all about extending and consolidating May's control of power. Nothing else.


Absolutely. I expect poor campaigns all round, low turnout and a moderately increased tory majority, maybe only +30 MPs.

The winners are likely LibDems who I expect might reach 20 MPs.

Highly likely Corbyn will resign on 9th June in my opinion.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1788

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To be fair to Teresa May she did say it was about consolidating her power
even if she did not use those words.
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careful_eugene



Joined: 26 Jun 2006
Posts: 437
Location: Nottingham UK

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A year ago, everybody laughed at the inclusion of "joke candidate" Donald Trump in the Republican line up, a year of make America great again, fake news and lies later and we have the first horseman of the apocalypse in charge at the White House. Jeremy Corbyn may well end up as Prime Minister on June 9th.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3251

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump was able to wind up the moronic masses, Corbyn doesn't have that ability.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1363

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robert Mackey: May wants election now before the cost of Brexit becomes clear

Quote:
The deeper problem is that the referendum has exposed splits in society which aren’t mapped by the political parties as they are currently constituted. People talk about Britain being ‘divided’ as if that’s a new issue, but societies are often divided, and the interests of all groups and individuals do not align. If they did, humanity would be the Borg. Political parties are the mechanism through which divisions in society are argued over and competing interests asserted.

The trouble with where we are now is that the configuration of the parties doesn’t match the issues which need to be resolved. To simplify, the Tories are a coalition of nationalists, who voted out, and business interests, who voted in; Labour is a coalition of urban liberals, who voted in, and the working class, who voted out. This means that if a general election were held tomorrow on the single issue of the referendum, the voter wouldn’t know whom to vote for. It wouldn’t be at all clear which faction in either party was likely to prevail when the hugely important details of what Brexit means come to be debated.


This may well be the point where both the Tories and Labour cease to exist in their current form and that we may well end up with are:
The Tories evolving into the Little Englander brigade basically usurping UKIP.
The pro-Europe Tories and Blairite New Labour - could quite possibly bury the hatchet and form a pro-EU party
The rest of Labour forming a left of centre sceptical of Europe - a la George Galloway's Respect party perhaps?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 3998
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I predict that the Tories will increase their majority.

The realistic question is by how much... I have a hunch it will be around 80 seat majority.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
Robert Mackey: May wants election now before the cost of Brexit becomes clear

The mistake of articles like this is to assume tehre is only one factor in a decision. What we have is:
a) Labour have a death wish
b) There is a potential prosecution of some tories
c) The tories have a fine majority
d) Brexit is harder than people think.

Those switch the balance. The tories are likely to get a higher majority.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 3998
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/04/20/fi-special-the-british-general-election-and-a-1st-round-french-presidential-election-forecast/

My take on the general election.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5201
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EU president (?) Says that UK could reverse article 50 after election and stay in EU without problems. The must be a big boost for the lib Dems if it is believed. They could pick up hugs number of votes from lab and con if enough of the 48% want it bad enough
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 497
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My estimate is about a 60 seat majority. However I feel as if many Conservative voters will see it as a foregone conclusion and stay at home so maybe I'll suggest that as a maximum and 40 as actual majority.

Ideally I'd like a lib-dem govt but no chance there I feel Sad
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
Posts: 808

PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like the Tories are committing suicide with this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/21/foreign-aid-spending-taxes-could-rise-pensions-threat-conservatives/

Abandoning the grey vote, while keeping foreign aid, is a good way to lose votes.

Meanwhile, Labour is looking to keep the triple-lock for pensioners, so could give them a boost......
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clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 7502

PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The triple lock on pensions HAS to go. It's simply indefensible that pensioners are guaranteed to see their incomes rise in real terms, no matter what. In my opinion it is morally indefensible for pensioners to become wealthier (on the back of the taxpayer) whilst young workers get poorer. There was reasonable argument for the triple lock a decade+ ago - but no more.

While I'm at it, it's also indefensible in my opinion for the state pension, and pensioner benefits like winter fuel allowance, free bus passes, TV licence etc not to be means tested. We are currently literally giving thousands of pounds of public money to millionaires - on the bases of their age. This is wrong.
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