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Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CCGT tonight at over 25GW which is another all time record.
OCGT running as well, no significant imports from France.

Certainly seem to be cutting it fine.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks very tight all day today,
CCGT at over 25, unprecedented until the last few days.
Very little wind or PV, only about 1 in total.
Nuclear a little reduced at nearly 8, but still doing well compared to some winters.
Coal at over 8, which is probably about all we have left.
Not much hope of help from France due to nuclear outages there.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indicated demand is just over 51, a record for this season.
Coal is at about 9.5, the highest recently, though of course it has been higher in previous years.
Wind under 1.
CCGT at 26, and was over 26 in this mornings peak, another record.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless something truly exceptional happens, the panic is now over until a few days into the new year.
Plenty of wind is expected today and tomorrow, and from Friday onwards demand will reduce for the Christmas and year holidays.

Full normal winter demand wont return until a few days into the new year.

Christmas day can bring the odd very localised breakdown due to overloading of substations and cables from all the roasting of turkeys, but national demand is much reduced as many businesses are closed.
Even local overloads are less likely this Christmas as the expected mild weather will reduce heating demand.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tonight's supply figures would be cause for concern on a weekday, but should be fine on a Saturday.

Demand is 41
Very little wind, under 1, nuclear reduced from recent peaks down to 6.8
Coal at about 8.7
CCGT at about 22.

Had demand reached 51, an entirely plausible figure for a winter WEEKDAY evening, then I am not convinced that another 10 would have been available.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks as though we have muddled through OK as is usual. Margins were tighter than is desirable, but the lights did not* go out*

And whilst of course winter is not over, it is nearly over and the season of peak demanding exceeding 50GW is almost certainly over.

The weather forecast for about the next 10 days is for relatively mild and reasonably windy conditions, so unless something truly exceptional occurs, no problems for 10 days.
10 days from now takes us to nearly the end of February, by which time demand historically reduces a bit.
And also with increasing daylight hours, PV is starting to make a small contribution to the early part of the evening peak demand. This shortens the time of the high peak and increases the chances of being able to use pumped storage for the later part of the peak.

Power from coal is of course much reduced, but did fairly regularly reach about 10GW.
I wonder how much coal capacity will remain for NEXT winter.

*apart of course from localised faults and failures that are unrelated to generating capacity.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In view of the concerns regarding natural gas supplies, I thought it worth re-visiting the subject of rota power cuts.

Points not always understood include

Firstly, the supply is interrupted by switching off high voltage circuits that supply a certain area.
When this is done, EVERY customer who is supplied at low voltage (240/415 volts) in the area affected will be without power WITHOUT EXCEPTION.
An awful lot of people seem to expect exemptions for persons or businesses with a particular need. This simply can not be done.
A rota power cut will affect hospitals, schools, government offices, embassies, consulates, palaces, prisons, tower blocks, exclusive gated developments, food shops, police stations, old peoples homes, telephone exchanges, newspaper publishers and printers, railway stations, private households with oxygen machines, stair lifts or kidney machines, and EVERY other customer in the affected area.
Those who believe that some special need will exempt them are in for an awful shock.
Facilities or persons with a particular need for electricity should already be equipped with standby generators, UPS systems or other arrangements.

The only exceptions are facilities that are of NATIONAL importance AND have a dedicated high voltage connection.
Examples include large food storage facilities, some docks and ports, traction current for electric railways (but not stations), gas transmission facilities, and the electrical industry itself.

The rota will be published in newspapers and on line.
It will be based on the customers load group, which is normally found on the electricity bill.

It would be sensible to make a note of ones load group, and also to note into what load group local facilities fall. Examples include local shops, pubs, vets, ones employer, and neighbours if different.

The rota is designed to be as fair as possible, with all load groups being treated equally.
The load group of each customer is determined by the physical location of the point of connection to the electricity network.
It can not be altered by the customer, and is most unlikely to be altered for any other reason.

Any customers load group will normally be the same as that of their neighbours, though of course there will be exceptions for those who happen to be right at the boundary.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This report suggests that TPTB are beginning to take electricity supply seriously.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40699986
Various suggestions for reducing peak load and encouraging a shift towards more consumption at times of plenty.

Wont help much for the winter evening peak though.
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
This report suggests that TPTB are beginning to take electricity supply seriously.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40699986
Various suggestions for reducing peak load and encouraging a shift towards more consumption at times of plenty.

Wont help much for the winter evening peak though.


Yes sexy solar power just doesn't cut the mustard really with millions of commuters arriving home and putting their EVs on fast charge so they can nip down the supermarket.

"The government will set up a "battery institute" to fund firms seeking major breakthroughs in battery research and development."

Laughing Legislation will be passed to get around nature's laws of electrochemistry using a cunning ion default swap app!
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am somewhat cynical, but still consider that this will help a bit.

Time of use pricing, perhaps controlled via the internet, would help a LITTLE even with the winter evening peak.

The commuter arriving home in their electric car MIGHT decide that sufficient charge remains to visit the supermarket before charging. A less fast charge, avoiding the evening peak MIGHT be automatically selected by the vehicle charger.

And of course NOT turning on the washing machine in the peak, but instead letting the internet turn it on at a time of relative plenty anytime in the next 24 hours would help a bit.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All that such measures do, in the end, is mop up spare capacity in the system. Which, in turn, means that when we inevitably hit the limits later on, there will be absolutely no options available in terms of spare capacity. In other words, it just makes the fall that much harder when it comes.

It is akin to pumping seawater into Saudi Arabian wells to squeeze the last drops of the oil out. This technique has certainly extended the peak of the supply curve. But, instead of the other side of that peak being a mirror of the relatively steady slope on the up-side of the supply curve, it will instead be a cliff edge when it finally comes.

We need to deal with causes not symptoms.

But we wont, so long as we continue to suffer with the collective delusion of our age that we can technologize our way out of our problems


Last edited by Little John on Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:45 am; edited 3 times in total
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:


The commuter arriving home in their electric car MIGHT decide that sufficient charge remains to visit the supermarket before charging. A less fast charge, avoiding the evening peak MIGHT be automatically selected by the vehicle charger.

And of course NOT turning on the washing machine in the peak, but instead letting the internet turn it on at a time of relative plenty anytime in the next 24 hours would help a bit.


Indeed they might if humans were organised, rational and responsible however little evidence exists to show this is the case. I have several neighbors, for example, who get in their cars and go out for the sole purpose of filling up with fuel! Any excuse to go for a drive.

The default expectation is that one is entitled to expect every bit of performance and convenience of fueling and use from an EV as from an ICE. I think if you calculate the equivalent charging power to replicate the speedy common experience of pumping petrol on a garage forecourt you are talking Megawatts!
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
This report suggests that TPTB are beginning to take electricity supply seriously.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40699986
Various suggestions for reducing peak load and encouraging a shift towards more consumption at times of plenty.

Wont help much for the winter evening peak though.


As has been advocated many times on this forum, the situation could all be dealt with in one blow, no need for bitty legislation.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:

As has been advocated many times on this forum, the situation could all be dealt with in one blow, no need for bitty legislation.


I assume you are alluding to a hard grid crash?
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
emordnilap wrote:

As has been advocated many times on this forum, the situation could all be dealt with in one blow, no need for bitty legislation.


I assume you are alluding to a hard grid crash?


That might do it. Laughing

Seriously, ask Shaun Chamberlain.
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