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Ballard



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 826
Location: Surrey

PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:26 pm    Post subject: $65... Reply with quote

The price seems to be going absolutely nuts at the moment...

A ten-dollar jump in about a month?

I don't think I've got long enough to sell my house and buy another...
It goes on the market this month; Car is in the trader...

Any ideas about immediate short-term preparations regarding my average sized mortgage?
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PaulS



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 602
Location: Cottage Farm,Cornwall

PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You ain't seen nothing yet.

My $70 dollar prediction for 22nd August turns out to be to optimistic.
Now the question is, will oil hit $100 this year or early next?

Preparation - get a fixed rate mortgage that cannot be shifted, put any spare cash into a saving account that will eventually pay more than that, and repay the whole lot with your banks help at the end of the fix term?

Or sell up and buy something cheap (I know of a nice little barn in a farm!)
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What a shame, seemed quite promising, this human species.
Check out www.TransitionNC.org & www.CottageFarmOrganics.co.uk
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peaky



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 332
Location: Brighton, UK

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yea - it's overdrive at the moment Shocked

My house went on the market last week - assuming a sale (soon, please Smile ) then I'm going to rent for a while while I work out step 2.

'May you live in interesting times' - indeed!
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fishertrop



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 859
Location: Sheffield

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PaulS wrote:

My $70 dollar prediction for 22nd August turns out to be to optimistic.


I thought that after reading the $70 competiion wrap-up, and seeing your bid.

And I recall thinking you were somewhat pesimistic when I first your chosen date!

What do people win anyway for getting the correct guess?
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MacG



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2863
Location: Scandinavia

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:05 am    Post subject: Re: $65... Reply with quote

Ballard wrote:
The price seems to be going absolutely nuts at the moment...

A ten-dollar jump in about a month?

I don't think I've got long enough to sell my house and buy another...
It goes on the market this month; Car is in the trader...

Any ideas about immediate short-term preparations regarding my average sized mortgage?


Remember that the markets are opaque and that we, mere mortals, are not told everything. The recent price hikes could very well be purely speculation driven and not "the real thing". We could very well end up with something like "the irony of the millenium" if this is driven by speculation - a sudden collapse in the oil prices followed by collapses in hedge funds and collapses for the banks which finance a lot of the leveraged speculation.

I suspect that media and governments will try to hide "peak-oil" at any cost, and that we will be fed it like it was a purely economic crisis.
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fishertrop



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 859
Location: Sheffield

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MacG does have a fair point.

You might also like this:
Quote:

T. Boone Pickens was just on CNBC saying that he saw $75/bbl soon. After today's $65/bbl, that's not that shocking...but since he's been right so much of late, it's an important note.


http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/2005/08/one-other-thing.html
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DamianB
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 553
Location: Dorset

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remember too that every single short position held when a contract is making life-time highs is held at a loss. The higher the price goes, the more pressure there is for the shorts to buy back their positions.
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PaulS



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 602
Location: Cottage Farm,Cornwall

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You win a barrel of oil of course. PowerSwitch are paying, I believe!
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What a shame, seemed quite promising, this human species.
Check out www.TransitionNC.org & www.CottageFarmOrganics.co.uk
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fishertrop



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 859
Location: Sheffield

PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DamianB wrote:
Remember too that every single short position held when a contract is making life-time highs is held at a loss. The higher the price goes, the more pressure there is for the shorts to buy back their positions.


How ironic then that Michael Lynch will be partly responsible for the high oil prices Laughing Laughing
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clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 7812

PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2005 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PaulS wrote:
You ain't seen nothing yet.

My $70 dollar prediction for 22nd August turns out to be to optimistic.
Now the question is, will oil hit $100 this year or early next?


You could be right, this week has seen a steady dollar a day rise, passing $67 on Friday! I'm just hoping for a quiet weekend now, this is all getting a little bit scary.
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DamianB
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 553
Location: Dorset

PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fishertrop wrote:
What do people win anyway for getting the correct guess?


Kudos Smile
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